[Reader-list] The fall of baghdad

[t byfield]

ravis at sarai.net (Thu 04/10/03 at 11:36 AM +0530):

> Yesterday was television's mythic moment, marines in Baghdad, the live 
> toppling of Saddam's statue, recalling so many similar moments: the 

so far, it seems as though the main axis -- in the US, at least -- of
debate about this war has been the immediate versus the historical. 
and what's been most upsetting for me is watching the fast transition
in which those who seemed so short-sighted (the bush league) seem, in
a few days, to become magisterially far-sighted; while those who seemed
so far-sighted (the antiwar movement) seem, in the same time, to be-
come so nearsighted. i'm not endorsing any position: i like freedom
and i like peace, and i won't pretend to know the best way to recon-
cile the two.

but i'm inclined to think that the euphoria attending the fall of bagh-
dad may prove to be much more myopic than the naysaying about the re-
sistance in um-qasr and basra. supreme commander tommy franks himself
said he couldn't accomplish what's been asked of him with less than 
another 100,000 soldiers and another 10 years. of course, the pentagon
will always err on the side of caution when it comes to publicly ac-
countable promises and franks's demand was just rhetorical. but, still, 
the question remains as to what the goals are. and if the goal is a 
'free iraq' in the sense of a durably socialized and equitably politi-
cized nation, i'm skeptical that this euphoria is justified in the long
term. in the short term, it isn't my business to question the feelings
of people who've been screwed for decades: if they smile, i smile --
even if it hurts because it seems to vindicate bush.

the problems bush will confront as his victory winds down are numerous.
the US as a global economic totem is crumbling, maybe fatally enough 
to result in the euro replacing the dollar as the preeminent denomina-
tion of worldwide investment. internally, the US economy has already
collapsed to such a degree that no postwar boost can fix. he had com-
mitted himself to an ongoing program of tax cuts that will only deepen
the mess. the tactical meneuvers of the international order cannot dis-
guise the deepening fear among nations that they cannot trust a coun-
try capable of electing a government dedicated to new heights in brinks-
manship. despots around the world have taken advantage of the war to 
torment dissidents. this war has set back a very promising transition 
in iran in the form of a rising generation that is worldly, secular, 
and committed to openness. it has convinced north korea that the only
way to deal with the US is through threatening the world order. and 
there are many other areas and countries, where a more delicate hand
could have played a pivotal role in establishing the basis for some
kind of desperately needed rapproachement. and, then, of course, there
is the question of iraq in the upcoming weeks and months and years.
bush has a well-established history of promising the world but deli-
vering nothing. tanks are very exciting for a day, but when it comes
to months, food is more satisfying.

the danger, which the bush league has already amde clear, is that this
administration will choose not to resolve the situation in iraq well
but, instead, to move on to another war against __________. i don't
know what to say about that.

but we shall see. i'd be very happy to be wrong.

cheers,
t