[Reader-list] George Bush: the contradictory conservative
Rana Dasgupta
eye at ranadasgupta.com
Sun Sep 5 18:23:17 IST 2004
Excellent article from The Economist assessing impact of Bush
administration.
R
The contradictory conservative
Aug 26th 2004 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
Despite the narrowness of his mandate, George Bush has done more to
alter America's profile abroad, and its government at home, than any
president in years
NEXT weekend, the Republicans, meeting in New York, will anoint George
Bush as their candidate for a second term. His approval ratings in his
own party stand at around 86%. Among Democrats, they run at around 8%.
Few presidents have been loved and loathed as heartily as Mr Bush; few
have so starkly polarised the country; and few have done so much to
change both the way America's government behaves at home, and the way it
is perceived abroad.
The Bush presidency has proved a radical unsettling force, from AIDS
policy in Africa to education reform at home; in different ways, for
good and ill, it has undermined the rulers of both Saudi Arabia and San
Francisco. Rather than offering a compendium of all that Mr Bush has
achieved, this special report will focus on three projects that history
may eventually judge the most controversial: the alleged “revolution” in
foreign policy, the pursuit of big-government conservatism and the
dramatic expansion of presidential powers. These may not prove the
deciding factors in the coming election; but they may be the ones that
resonate longest.
Begin with foreign policy. Mr Bush has had a bigger impact on diplomacy
than any president since Harry Truman. After the second world war,
Truman set up the system of alliances that ensured the Soviet threat
would be contained and American leadership of the West would continue
after Europe recovered. Ronald Reagan turned Truman's creation into more
of a public challenge to what the Soviet Union stood for, but he did not
fundamentally alter its structure.
Mr Bush did. After the end of the cold war—long after, in fact—he argued
that the old world order had run its course. He rejected both a supposed
cornerstone—the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty—and some later
additions, such as the Kyoto accords and the International Criminal
Court, both also rejected by Congress.
But Mr Bush's foreign-policy revolution actually came in two steps. The
rejection of the treaties was the first and, since it came to terms with
a geopolitical fact, the Soviet collapse, it may well prove the more
lasting. The second step came only after the September 11th attacks,
with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. In response to the atrocity, NATO
for the first time invoked its article 5 provision that an attack on one
member is an attack on all, signalling a willingness to help America
militarily. The Bush administration was slow to pick up the offer.
“Coalitions of the willing” took the place of traditional alliances.
Then, in Iraq, Mr Bush put his doctrine of prevention and possible
pre-emption into effect. In an age of global terror, this said,
self-defence meant acting alone and pre-emptively, if need be. Working
through the United Nations—ie, waiting for others—could be suicide.
These two steps obviously had much in common. Both said that treaties
can constrain America's freedom of action and that, when they do, they
should be ignored. Both imply that the exercise of power alone may be
enough to achieve American aims. Still, the second step went beyond the
first. It proposed new rules for going to war and a substitute for
traditional alliances—the willing coalitions.
Over the past few weeks, however, these additions have begun to look
shaky. Is the Bush revolution in foreign affairs reaching its limits?
It may be. In May 2003, on the flight-deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln,
Mr Bush argued that once upon a time, “military power was used to end a
regime by breaking a nation. Today we have the greater power to free a
nation by breaking a dangerous and aggressive regime.” Experience in
Iraq contradicts that optimism, or at least suggests that “freeing a
nation” requires more than just bringing down a troublesome regime.
Legitimacy, it turns out, matters. It does not spring up spontaneously
if American motives are pure, as some in the administration have argued.
And coalitions of the willing do little to confer legitimacy.
Moreover, as Ivo Daalder of the Brookings Institution and Jim Lindsay of
the Council on Foreign Relations have argued, the doctrine of
pre-emption supposes that the intelligence services will be good enough
to warn America of threats before they are realised. The catalogue of
errors is not reassuring on this point.
Lastly, problems in Iraq have strained the unstable coalition that is Mr
Bush's foreign-policy team. Neo-conservatives, who argue that America's
destiny is to spread democracy round the world, are losing influence.
The world-view of assertive nationalists (notably Dick Cheney, the
vice-president, and Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of defence), who say
military might will be enough to deter America's enemies, has not been
dethroned. But it has been weakened, and their unilateralist instincts
look more problematic. The “soft power” diplomats—Colin Powell and the
State Department—have become more important. All this raises questions
about support for Mr Bush's foreign policy even within his own cabinet.
As if to confirm the doubts, the past few months have seen a new look.
Having handed over sovereignty to the Iraqis and got the Security
Council's blessing, as it always meant to, America has also asked
Europeans to endorse its “Broader Middle East Initiative” and appealed
to NATO to help train Iraqi troops. The big question now is whether
these changes are part of a profound reappraisal of American foreign
policy, or whether they are just tactical adjustments to recent
difficulties.
The honest answer is that it is too early to be sure. But the changes
are probably tactical. Despite the presence of heavyweights in his
cabinet, Mr Bush has always been the author of America's foreign-policy
transformation, and he has repeatedly denied any new change of course.
This is not to be discounted; in foreign affairs, the president has
usually signalled what he is planning to do very clearly.
It is true that Iraq has raised doubts about the doctrine of prevention
and pre-emption. But the debate has shown that the alternative “rules
for going to war” are, from America's viewpoint, far worse. This is the
claim, particularly espoused by France and Germany, that, except in the
case of actual attack or imminent threat, countries cannot use military
force legitimately without the approval of the Security Council. No
American president would ever accept, or has ever accepted, such an
idea. If others insist that the alternative to unilateralism is the UN,
America will stick with unilateralism.
Most important, the underlying rationale of Mr Bush's transformed policy
has not really changed. This is that there is a huge gap in military
power between America and everyone else, that the country has
opportunities denied to anyone else and that traditional alliances are
therefore useful rather than necessary. Iraq has shown that the exercise
of American power is harder than the administration thought; but the
exercise of power is still what matters most to Mr Bush. In that sense,
his foreign policy is being refined, not retooled.
Mr Bush once campaigned as a proponent of a “humble” foreign policy. In
practice, he has not provided one. On the domestic front, he has been
equally surprising. And despite the narrowness of his mandate, he has
proved as polarising at home as he is abroad. Consider, next, the
peculiar character of the president's domestic conservatism.
A big-government guy
This is one of the most conservative politicians ever to inhabit the
White House. Mr Bush has fed red meat to the various groups that make up
the conservative coalition—opposition to abortion, gay marriage and
stem-cell research for social conservatives; the invasion of Iraq for
neo-conservatives; tax-breaks and deregulation for business
conservatives. He has driven liberals stark raving bonkers. “Among the
worst presidents in US history,” proclaimed Jonathan Chait in the New
Republic. “Incomparably more dangerous than Reagan or any other
president in this nation's history,” wrote Harold Meyerson in the
American Prospect.
But exactly what sort of conservative is Mr Bush? Ever since Barry
Goldwater's quixotic bid for the White House in 1964, American
conservatism has been a small-government philosophy. Ronald Reagan
regarded government as the problem rather than the solution, and
therefore shrank social programmes. Newt Gingrich's troops assaulted not
just Lyndon Johnson's Great Society but also a pillar of FDR's New Deal,
the welfare system.
Mr Bush's track-record has been very different. While cutting taxes in a
dramatic way that Mr Reagan would surely have applauded, he has
relentlessly expanded both the scale and scope of central government—in
order to advance the conservative cause. Mr Bush has tried to preside
over the birth of a new political philosophy: big-government conservatism.
The Bush presidency has seen the biggest increase in discretionary
spending since his fellow Texan, Johnson, was in the White House (see
chart 1). In his first term, according to the 2005 budget, total federal
spending will rise by 29%, more than triple the rate of increase in Bill
Clinton's second term. The Bush administration raised spending on
education from $36 billion in 2001 to $63 billion in 2004, a 75%
increase; it has also pushed through the biggest expansion of Medicare,
the federal health-care plan for the old, since the programme was
created in the 1960s. More people now work for the federal government
than at any time in history.
It could be argued that the expansion of government under Mr Bush is the
unfortunate consequence of events, particularly the September 11th
attacks. The terrorist threat more or less forced the government to
create a giant new homeland-security apparatus, which Mr Bush at first
opposed. Mr Bush has promised conservatives that he will try to get
spending under control; the 2005 budget envisions domestic discretionary
spending rising by only 0.5% and calls for the abolition of 65 federal
programmes, saving $4.9 billion.
Not just homeland security
Yet this argument seems unconvincing. The war on terror accounts for
only part of the increase in government spending. As for Mr Bush's
promise that he will eventually get spending under control, the White
House has already embraced commitments that could keep government
growing for years. On some estimates, the Medicare bill alone could end
up costing $2 trillion in its second decade.
Mr Bush's big-government conservatism goes beyond a mere blind response
to events. During the 2000 campaign, he made it clear that he had a
different attitude to government from his fellow conservatives. He sang
the praises of “focused, effective and energetic government”. Rather
than calling for the abolition of the Department of Education, like the
rest of his fellow conservatives, he called for its expansion. He even
had a good word to say about Johnson's Great Society.
Mr Bush's big-government conservatism also goes beyond a mere
willingness to spend public money. He has reversed a long-standing
Republican commitment to decentralisation by giving the federal
government a greater role in setting education standards than it has
ever had before. He has also reversed a long-standing Republican
suspicion of government bossiness by trying to use government to promote
conservative values. The Education Department is promoting abstinence in
sex education. The Department of Health and Human Services is trying to
use the welfare system to advocate the virtues of marriage and
responsible fatherhood. John Ashcroft's Justice Department has ridden
over states' rights to prosecute people who believe in assisted suicide
and the medical use of marijuana.
Where has all this come from? Mr Bush turned to big-government
conservatism as an antidote to growing problems of the small-government
kind. As the 1990s wore on, Mr Gingrich and his merry band increasingly
tried America's patience with their bomb-throwing radicalism. The middle
classes had been happy to advocate tough love for the poor, but they
were much less happy when the tough love involved cuts to Medicare or
student loans. Not unfairly, Mr Bush calculated that making peace with
government was the only way to re-endear conservatism to the middle class.
Many of his fervent supporters regarded tax cuts as their highest
priority: cuts that Mr Bush duly delivered. But many elements in the
conservative coalition also looked to government to solve their
problems. Business people wanted the government to subsidise their
industries at home and promote their interests abroad. Corporate America
had been calling for educational reform for years. Social conservatives
were keen on using government to promote “virtue” or eradicate “vice”
(from assisted suicide to pot-smoking), a position highly attractive to
a president who starts every cabinet meeting with a prayer. The White
House and the Republican majority in Congress worked assiduously to
shower government largesse on Republican-leaning interest groups.
Agricultural legislation involved a huge give-away to agribusiness;
prescription-drugs legislation provided a bonanza for the pharmaceutical
industry.
The neo-conservative intelligentsia has played as vital a role in
promoting big-government conservatism as it did in promoting the Iraq
war. Irving Kristol, the godfather of neo-conservatism, sees the growth
of the state as “natural, indeed inevitable”. His son Bill uses his
Weekly Standard magazine to lead a crusade to replace “leave-us-alone
conservatism” with “national-greatness conservatism”. Mr Kristol and his
supporters argue that “wishing to be left alone isn't a governing
doctrine”, and that loving your country while hating its government is
not a sustainable philosophical position. Besides, there is no need to
hate government if it is in the right (Republican) hands.
A lasting philosophy?
The most compelling argument in favour of Mr Bush's policies is that he
is doing more than just expanding government. He is increasingly tying
public spending to competition and accountability. The No Child Left
Behind Act, the most interesting reform of American education for a
generation, uses a combination of national standards and standardised
testing to measure children's progress: if too many children in a
particular school fail to hit the required standards, then parents have
the right to move them elsewhere. The Medicare reforms have been a way
of introducing medical savings accounts. The proposed individual
investment accounts in Social Security (federal pensions) will give
individuals more responsibility for managing their nest eggs. This
emphasis on accountability explains why public-sector unions loathe Mr
Bush, despite his big-spending ways.
Yet attempts to introduce competition in schools or health care have not
gone very far. There are good reasons to doubt whether the educational
bureaucracy will ever have the guts to close down failing schools. The
Bush administration signally failed to use the expansion of Medicare as
a lever for introducing structural reforms, such as means-testing. Mr
Bush's only real chance to build choice into the heart of a government
programme lies in his mooted Social Security reforms.
Even if these programmes can be made to work, big-government
conservatism undoubtedly has drawbacks. The new creed's biggest problem
is simple: if you cut taxes deeply while increasing spending lavishly,
you end up with a gigantic deficit. This newspaper is not about to argue
that cutting taxes is wrong in principle: the Republican Party's
instinct that it is better to leave money in voters' pockets than to
give it to bureaucrats has been one of its most attractive features. But
big, persistent budget deficits also put a burden on people. If the
Republicans continue to tax like a small-government party and spend like
a big-government one, deficits could average $500 billion a year for the
next decade—an alarming prospect. Mr Bush should be preparing for the
retirement of the huge baby-boomer generation.
Nor is big-government conservatism the political cure-all that it might
seem. It is alienating big chunks of the Republican coalition.
Libertarians don't want to be told whether they can smoke pot by Mr
Ashcroft. Old-fashioned conservatives don't want to see Washington
extending its power over local schools. And good-government types don't
want to see the deficit balloon out of control.
Senator John McCain has reprimanded Mr Bush for failing to use his veto
to control a Congress which is spending money “like a drunken sailor”.
Rush Limbaugh has complained that Mr Bush's legacy may be the greatest
increase in domestic spending, and one of the greatest setbacks to
liberty, in modern times. “This may be compassionate”, says Mr Limbaugh,
“but it is not conservatism at all.”
A third problem lies with unintended consequences. Forty years ago, the
founding fathers of neo-conservatism criticised the Great Society on the
grounds that its soaring intentions often produced bad results: rent
control reduces the availability of affordable housing, for example. The
biggest unintended consequence of Mr Bush's efforts may be that
big-government conservatism morphs into big-government liberalism.
Government is by its nature a knife that cuts to the left, in part
because government employees tend to be on the left, in part because
government programmes promote dependency. Rather than twisting
government to conservative ends, the Republicans may simply be creating
yet more ammunition for future Democratic administrations.
Mr Bush is nothing if not ambitious. If his new philosophy endures, he
will be a transformative figure in the history of the modern
conservative movement. If it fails, he will be seen as a domestic
policymaker who doomed himself by ignoring the central insight of the
revolution that began with Goldwater: that the essence of conservatism
lies in shrinking government.
Mr Bush's presidency has been radical not only in what he has tried to
do, but in the way he has gone about doing it. His term has seen an
extraordinary change in style. Partly by his own efforts, partly as a
result of underlying forces, he has increased the power of the
presidency at the expense of other branches of government. This is the
third great project of his presidency, the least noticed outside
Washington, DC, and perhaps the most worrying.
Imperium revisited
Mr Bush came to office arguing that restrictions on presidential
authority, especially since Watergate, had harmed decision-making. The
implication is that good government requires a certain period of privacy
in which officials can thrash out policies. The public should judge only
the result. In 2002, his vice-president, Dick Cheney, said, “I have
repeatedly seen an erosion of the powers and the ability of the
president of the United States to do his job.” He said he and Mr Bush
had talked about the need to “pass on our offices in better shape than
we found them to our successors.” They have succeeded, after a fashion,
but at a heavy cost.
Unified government, with the administration and Congress under the same
party's control, tends to boost presidential authority anyway—the more
so this time, as the Republican Party is fairly disciplined. Tom DeLay,
the majority leader in the House of Representatives, has defined his job
simply: “How do I advance the president's agenda?” The party's narrow
majority keeps troops in line. Lest there be any backsliding, Mr Bush's
personal campaigning in the 2002 mid-term elections reminded congressmen
and senators of their interest in keeping on good terms with him.
More important, wars always increase the powers of the executive branch.
Because it has implications for America's domestic freedoms, the war on
terror may well end up increasing executive power more than most.
But Mr Bush's ambitions have gone beyond what these underlying forces
make inevitable. One measure of his ambition was the claim of the Office
of Legal Counsel in the Justice Department (the administration's main
source of legal advice), made in August 2002, that the president's
authority as commander-in-chief was in effect unlimited in the conduct
of a war. As the legal opinion put it, he “enjoys complete discretion in
the exercise of his commander-in-chief authority.”
This claim showed how expansive Mr Bush's view of his powers could be.
No former president had gone that far. In fact, it was too far. The
Supreme Court said the constitution did not warrant such a reading and
struck down the policy based on it: holding detainees from the war in
Afghanistan without charge. But the case was unusual only in that the
high court overruled Mr Bush. More commonly, he has had his way.
The most important check on a president's authority is Congress,
formally the sovereign power. To see how Mr Bush and his allies have
treated the legislature, consider the Medicare bill.
In January 2003, the White House sent Congress a proposal for reform of
the health-care system. The price tag, it said, was $400 billion. The
real cost was $534 billion. Medicare's chief actuary was told not to
answer congressional questions on pain of dismissal. After the House and
Senate passed different versions of the proposal, the Republicans began
work to reconcile the two. They refused to let five of the Democrats
nominated to the process take part in deliberations—and rewrote the bill.
Even then, they fell short of a majority when voting began, at 3am.
Defying precedent, the House leadership held the vote open for three
hours while arms were twisted. The bill finally passed just before 6am.
Norm Ornstein, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, called
it the ugliest breach of congressional standards in modern history.
Making laws has always been like making sausages (don't look closely).
When the Democrats were in charge, they did not always run Congress as
prescribed in the civics textbooks. Some of Congress's hallowed
traditions could do with pruning, especially the power of committees.
But the Republicans have put forward none of this in mitigation.
Instead, they have claimed, in essence, that the ends justify the means.
Mr Bush, they say, has pushed big tax cuts and education and health-care
reforms through a closely divided, bitterly partisan institution. The
alternative to such strong-arm tactics was legislative gridlock, which,
they argue, would have been worse.
Even if you think the ends are good, the means have inflicted
institutional harm on Congress. The committee system for amending bills
has all but collapsed. Bills are now written by the leaders and their
staffs, in concert with the White House. Debate is often cut off: many
controversial measures are voted on under a “closed rule”, which bars
amendments. The conference stage, when different versions of a bill are
reconciled, has been turned from an occasion for compromise into yet
another opportunity for partisan gain. Sometimes the conference
committee does not meet at all. Sometimes Republicans have ignored the
rule that says the committee can only iron out differences, and have
fundamentally altered bills at the last minute. The budget process is in
tatters.
Dozing watchdogs
As for Congress's other main job—oversight of the administration—that
has declined too, with a few exceptions (the Senate Armed Services
Committee held useful hearings on the Abu Ghraib scandal). Serious
investigation has been left to special commissions, such as the one that
looked into the September 11th attacks. The responsibility for this lies
largely with congressional Republicans: they are reluctant to
investigate one of their own. But Mr Bush has not exactly shown
deference to Congress's oversight role. The White House refused to let
Tom Ridge, the head of homeland security, testify in 2002. It declared
it would not answer questions from Democrats on budget committees. Mr
Bush refused to testify before the 9/11 commission. In all these cases,
the administration finally backed down. But at a time of dramatic
change, the watchdogs of Congress have been dozing.
Congressional oversight is at the heart of the administration's claim
that excessive intrusiveness is harming executive decision-making. The
cause célèbre in this case was the new energy policy. When Democrats
attempted to force the vice-president to reveal whom he had met while
formulating an energy bill, Mr Cheney refused, arguing that the
constitution protects the president and vice-president from
congressional attempts to reveal details of their deliberations. As the
solicitor-general argued to the Supreme Court, “Congress may neither
intrude on the president's ability to perform these [deliberative]
functions, nor authorise private litigants to use the court to do so.”
On this occasion, Mr Cheney prevailed. His victory will encourage future
administrations.
But the administration has not stopped there. The power of the president
is limited not only by the might of Congress but by a host of smaller
laws and administrative rules: freedom-of-information requests, the
power to classify documents, and civil-service procedures. Partly in
response to domestic security worries, the discretionary power of the
executive has increased substantially in these areas.
The best-known examples come from the Patriot Act, which boosted
law-enforcement powers and surveillance. That act, at least, was passed
by Congress and is subject to congressional review. More commonly, the
administration has increased its powers by asserting them. Soon after
September 11th, Mr Ashcroft issued new guidelines on
freedom-of-information requests. The attorney-general reversed the
Clinton-era policy of rejecting such requests only if to allow them
would cause “substantial harm”. Public-interest groups complain that
requests are now often denied, even over matters that seem to have
nothing to do with security, such as pollution or car safety.
According to figures from the National Archives, around 44m documents
were classified in the first two years of the current administration—as
many as in the whole of Mr Clinton's second term. More
officials—including, for some reason, the secretary of agriculture—have
been given the power to classify materials. This is more than just a
response to September 11th. Mr Bush has issued an executive order
overturning the rule that presidential papers are automatically
declassified 12 years after presidents leave office; instead, he said,
former presidents could decide whether to disclose their papers during
their lifetimes, and the incumbent president would also have power of
review.
In the details
A subset of this reaction against scrutiny is the use of what might be
called government by small print: slipping additions into law at the
last minute or tinkering with the wording of rules that implement laws.
As a recent series in the Washington Post argued, such changes often
appear minor but can have a big impact. By changing the word “waste” to
“fill” in a rule governing coal-mining, for instance, the administration
allowed an increase in strip-mining in West Virginia. By adding two
sentences about scientific evidence to an unrelated budget bill, it gave
itself increased authority to rule in regulatory disputes.
Perhaps the most disturbing way in which the administration has
increased its power has been through its public-relations machine.
Thomas Jefferson said long ago that a well-informed electorate is the
most important constraint on government. By issuing partial and
sometimes misleading information, the Bush administration has hampered
such scrutiny.
Consider for instance the arguments for tax cuts. Here, Mr Bush made
claims about the cost of the cuts and their distributional impact that
he should have known were misleading. In 2000, he claimed the first
round of cuts would cost $1.6 trillion over ten years, a quarter of the
budget surplus at that point. On his own figures, the share was a third,
not a quarter, and he arrived at the figure only through outrageous
accounting gimmicks that he is now campaigning to forbid.
He also asserted that the cuts would provide “the greatest help for
those most in need”, providing a Treasury study to back up his claim. In
the past, Treasury studies have been impartial. But this one arrived at
its conclusion by leaving out the parts of the tax cut that most
benefited the wealthiest (such as the repeal of the estate tax). By any
normal measure, the tax cuts have been regressive—hardly “the greatest
help for those most in need”.
Taking facts out of context, politicising government studies and
presenting anomalous examples as typical are hardly unique to the Bush
administration. But they still do damage. The system of checks and
balances—indeed, democracy itself—requires voters to be able to
understand the impact of actions taken on their behalf, so they can
apportion credit or blame fairly. If it is impossible to tell how much
of the administration's arguments for war were vindicated or disproved,
or who the tax cuts really helped, then proper public accounting is
impossible.
Beyond that, members of the administration have occasionally acted in
ways that have discouraged public debate directly. In May 2002, the
White House's communications director, Dan Bartlett, argued in the
Washington Post that Democratic criticisms of administration actions
before September 11th were “exactly what our opponents, our enemies,
want us to do.” Mr Ashcroft had earlier conflated civil-liberties
activists with terrorist sympathisers, telling Congress: “To those who
scare peace-loving people with phantoms of lost liberty, my message is
this: your tactics only aid terrorists.” All this came near to arguing
that, after September 11th, debate itself could be treasonous.
Mr Bush has frequently said that voters will give their verdict in
November, and that he looks forward to it. But quadrennial elections are
not the only means of restraining government. The genius of the American
system is that administrations must work within a system of checks and
balances. These checks have themselves been checked.
Congress is the main competing source of power. It has become more like
an adjunct to the administration. Information encourages public
scrutiny. The flow has been reduced. The administration's actions are
filtered through civil-service rules and procedures. The rules have been
chopped and changed. A free press is essential to the working of
democracy. Andy Card, the White House chief of staff, rejected that
view, arguing “I don't believe you [the press] have a check-and-balance
function.” On occasion, the administration has even crossed the line
separating the interests of the state from the party by using taxpayers'
money to finance advertising for the Medicare bill.
Almost all governments bend the truth. This one has seldom resorted to
outright falsehood; instead, the administration has manipulated public
information and breached basic standards of political conduct in
Congress, the civil service and public debate. Whatever the merits of
increasing presidential authority, Mr Bush has achieved his aim less by
winning support for more power than by weakening the authority of other
institutions.
In the round
Mr Bush's supporters may regard carping on about this expansion of
powers as a distraction from other more visible achievements of his
presidency. Look, they may argue, at the way that the White House has
set about reducing nuclear proliferation, or at his plans to build an
ownership society at home, or at the long-term economic stimulus of his
tax reform. From the other side, his critics complain that the
administration has trashed the environment, or worsened inequality, or
schemed to roll back abortion rights.
It usually takes some time for the true significance of any presidency
to emerge. Mr Bush's most contentious projects may come to seem
relatively unimportant. For now, perhaps the most remarkable thing about
this presidency is the extent to which it has already confounded
expectations. When Mr Bush was elected, it was widely believed that his
power would be slight and he would achieve little. For better or worse,
those predictions were refuted. Whether this will help or harm him in
November remains to be seen.
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