[Reader-list] The Shotgun and the Sniper: Notes from the World Conference for Climate Change

[Aman Sethi]

Apologies for X posting on www.kafila.org

"The time for silver bullets has passed," proclaimed Marc Stewart,
"What we need is a Shotgun!" In his bright Bali shirt, Nike sneakers
and Investment Banker haircut, Mr Stewart is the firm-handshaking,
fist pumping, ever effusive all-American co-founder of Ecosecurities,
a firm that specialises in developing and marketing carbon trading
projects under the Clean Development Mechanism - CDM - of the Kyoto
Protocol. With emission reductions under Kyoto less than a month away,
Mr Stewart's firm is looking to extend its market capitalisation to
far beyond its existing 40 million USD. The Ecosecurity model
functions in the following way - they find and help develop projects
in the developing world that is eligible for credit credits under the
CDM, and then sell the credits in to firms in EU and across the orld
that are looking to meet their Kyoto targets by offsetting excess
emissions against carbon credits. Firms like Ecosecurities pushed the
carbon market to 30 billion dollars in 2006; and if Annex 1 agrees to
further emission cuts (25-40 per cent below 1992 by 2020) the
potential size of the market is open to the most optimistic hyperbole.

The "Shotgun Approach" suggested by Stewart was his response to the
fact that Climate Change is a "reality that needs to be addressed NOW"
- and that governments, international bodies and business would have
to proceed on a rampage on all possible fronts simultaneously - sort
of like the blunt double-barrelled, pump action shotguns freely
available back home in America. The Shotgun approach was Mr Stewart's
reason for opening up and extending carbon markets to as many sectors
as possible - particularly Forestry.

If we were to examine the shotgun metaphor in some detail, we find the
shotgun is best known for its tremendous stopping power at
short-ranges (say 40 per cent reduction in 10 years?), and the fact
that on firing, the shot divides up into pellets, making it easy to
hit small targets at some distance, allowing even inexperienced
marksmen to use it with a fair degree of competency. And Mr Stewart is
not the only one holding the shotgun. A week into the climate change
conference, there seems to be a very interesting development paradigm
emerging that is vaguely reminiscent of the AIDS approach to
development. Under the adaptation and mitigation arms of Climate
change - it is possible to embark on any number of projects in the
guise of saving the planet. While "Saving the Poor" has clearly lost
some of lustre on the funding markets, "Saving the Planet" seems to be
bringing in some serious money from governments, donor bodies and
private enterprise. The fact that climate shall hit everyone in end,
and not just the "poor and vulnerable" (though it is routinely
stressed that they shall be the worst hit) seems to have motivated
some serious thinking. The first week at Bali has largely centred
around the "tremendous opportunites presented by Climate Change." Thus
you have sessions on "Climate Change and Gender", "Climate Change and
Health", "Climate Change and the Millenium Development Goals",
"Leadership and Climate Change", and my personal favourite "Climate
Change and HIV/AIDS." Fire the Climate Change Shotgun and hit a whole
collection of development indices - big ones at short ranges, small
ones at longer ranges. The approach might just have some benefits -
given the urgency of the problem (and yes, Climate Change is a real,
serious, significant problem that has to be dealt with); groups
working on thankless, under-funded projects like Malaria, disaster
management, and drought relief might finally get the money they
require - and all projects need to be "sexed up" to fit into donor
spending agenda.

What is interesting is the shift one sees from an earlier approach to
development - which could be termed the "Sniper Approach" (My
metaphor, not Mr Stewart's). The Sniper rifle, is a specialised rifle
designed to maximise accuracy over long distances to hit precise
targets. Thus, the Sniper Approach could be understood as a metaphor
for highly decentralised specific schemes that target specific
projects. These were much in vogue in the late nineties and continue
to be applied in community level projects - where the approach is
custom designed for the community in question and takes on board their
specific needs. The Sniper approach was supposed to reduce system
leakages, often using information technology and verification
apparatus and was favoured by organisations like the World Bank to
ensure that benefits of specific schemes were "targeted"
(coincidentally a word that development agencies use a lot) at those
that needed them the most. The idea was to introduce fiscal discipline
in developing economies and ensure that the limited subsidies that
were handed out went to the intended recipients. India's TPDS - or
Targeted Public Distribution System - could be a useful example of
such a scheme. Another one could be the Micro-credit intiatives and
SHGs (Self Help Groups), so loved by one and all; but i suppose the
fact that SHG's operate on small scales and ranges could call for
Pistol/ Handgun Initiatives.

One week into the conference, it is hard to tell what approach to take
- perhaps one could take all three on board and step out
battle-hardened and armed to the teeth. Personally, I find myself
sympathetic to cause of the solar powered tazer : renewable,
zero-emissions and allegedly non-lethal; always a good way to start
saving the world.

Best
Aman