[Reader-list] Deadline ..26th December for Pakistan to Act ?

[Pawan Durani]

"Whatever theymay say ....i believe that each leader is playing to their
respective masses and just building a hysteria."
http://once-upon-a-time-in-the-west.blogspot.com/2008/12/ww4-file-new-delhi-imposes-december-26.html
WW4
File: New Delhi imposes December 26 deadline for Islamabad to crack down on
Mumbai attack plotters, US prepares for "worst-case" scenario
*<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_MsttoDROu1o/SVE9NONf7kI/AAAAAAAAF7E/S2SFj50H2oc/s1600-h/Taj+Mahal+Hotel-11-26-08.jpg>-
Indian Government Holds "War Room" Meeting This Past Saturday, **Top General
Kapoor Arrives in Jammu and Kashmir Today to Assess Operational Preparedness
of Troops*
**
*- Pakistani Warplanes Carry Out Second Day of Patrols over Lahore, Rumors
of Joint Indo-Israeli Air Strikes Provoke Civilians to Panic *
**
*- Chief of General Staff Kayani Rejects US Admiral Mullen's Reported Plea
to Permit Indian Air Force to Bomb Terror Bases on Pakistani Soil, Warns
Islamabad Will Retaliate against** such Military Action "within Minutes"
*
*- Pakistan and China Sign Defence Cooperation Agreement, Taliban Threatens
to Hurl "Hundreds" of Suicide Bombers at Indian Forces*

*- Collateral Damage: Nuclear Exchange between India and Pakistan Could
Possibly Place 32,000 US Troops in Afghanistan in Harm's Way, Troop Strength
to Double in 2009*

According to a report from today's edition of Stratfor, following the
November 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks India imposed a 30-day deadline on
Pakistan to crack down on the plotters and accomplices. New Delhi
attributes<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24839628-2703,00.html>the
bloody plot that killed 173 people to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and
elements
of Islamabad's Inter-Services Intelligence agency. The Stratfor report was
subsequently picked up by the ARY Television Network, which is owned by
Dubai-based Pakistani businessman Haji Abdul Razzak Yaqoob ("ARY"). ARY One
World <http://www.thearynews.com/english/newsdetail.asp?nid=19147> states:

*The report said India using time to prepare its military forces, and
waiting when the time comes to act. However, the report said, it is still
unclear how far India will take this military campaign and to what extent
the US operations in Afghanistan will be affected. The intelligence
publisher reported that the US, knowing its "limitations" of the
relationship with New Delhi, is already preparing for "a worst-case
scenario."
*
Pictured above: The Taj Mahal Hotel, which was stormed and occupied by
terrorists from Pakistan on November 26, burns in Mumbai.

Although we previously blogged that the Indian government is pursuing a
policy of "opaque mobilization" with respect to preparing air strikes
against LeT camps in Pakistan, the Pakistani media is finally reporting on
Indian troop movements, related to the Indian Air Force's endeavor to
strengthen the country's air defenses, near the common border. Yesterday's
edition of India
Today<http://indiatoday.digitaltoday.in/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&issueid=85&id=23314&Itemid=1&sectionid=4>picked
up the Pakistani story:

*India has started deploying troops along Rajasthan border facing Pakistan
and tightened security in and around Indian defence airstrips, a leading
Pakistani online portal Geo News claimed on Monday quoting unnamed sources.

In a Jaisalmer-datelined despatch, the portal said the security around
places of strategic importance has been stepped up. More radars and quick
reaction teams have been deployed along the India-Pakistan border.

The Indian defence authorities didn't confirm the reports on the troop
build-up in the Rajasthan sector or any other location along the
India-Pakistan border.

The portal said the Indian Air Force had initiated these measures to
strengthen its air defence to face any eventuality at a short
notice.Additional hangars and runways have been prepared and all the
radars have
been put on high alert. Tight radar surveillance is being maintained to keep
a watch on any suspected movements along the border.

Indian forces were on regular firing exercises at locations like Lathi
Firing Range in Jaisalmer, Mahsan in Bikaner, Suratgarh and Ganganagar.
*
These military deployments, Pakistan's
Nation<http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Regional/Lahore/21-Dec-2008/India-holds-war-room-meeting>reports,
follow Saturday evening's four-hour "war room" meeting chaired by
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi. Present at the meeting
were Defence Minister A.K. Antony, External Affairs Minister Pranab
Mukherjee, Home Minister P. Chidambaram, National Security Advisor M.K.
Narayanan, and the chiefs of all three military branches and India's
intelligence agency. Meeting participants evaluated the security
preparedness across the country and the troop response, and discussed the
country's security preparedness and selective strikes on terror camps across
the border.

<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_MsttoDROu1o/SVE3vfhKiYI/AAAAAAAAF68/PM4q1KwKgVg/s1600-h/Kashmir-Line+of+Control.jpg>Today,
reports the Times of
India<http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Army_chief_rushes_to_Siachen_border_areas_in_JK/articleshow/3878817.cms>,
army chief General Deepak Kapoor arrived at Siachen Glacier and "forward
areas" of Jammu and Kashmir to assess the operational preparedness of the
troops, before returning again to New Delhi with a report to the Indian
government. "Since the Mumbai carnage, Army units along the borders with
Pakistan have been maintaining a close vigil," the news source relates,
"Some of IAF fighter aircraft squadrons in bases in forward areas have been
on a 'cockpit alert' under which the force remains ready for military
operations." The same source confirms that PM Singh and senior government
ministers held deliberations with top brass at the Prime Minister's Office
in South Block this past Saturday. As a result of that meeting DM Antony
ordered that all leave to military personnel will be cancelled until April
2009 "in view of the situation along the borders."

The Times of India<http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Air_force_stations_in_cockpit_ready_alert/articleshow/3877482.cms>also
reports today that there is heavy aerial traffic around Chandigarh Air
Force Station, primarily Soviet/Russian-built Il-76 and AN-32 troop
transports en route to Jammu and Kashmir: "Sources in [the Indian Air
Force's] Western Air Command said on Monday that the latest moves have been
taken to maintain 'optimum operational preparedness' and added a consistent
increase in average flying effort had contributed to this."

In Islamabad, the Indian
media<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Rumours_of_war_create_panic_in_Pakistan/rssarticleshow/3875617.cms>reported
yesterday, rumors of an imminent military attack from India are
circulating in the wake of a warning pronounced on Monday by Pakistani
Defence Minister Ahmad Mukhtar Chaudhry: "If India tried to thrust war, then
the armed forces of Pakistan have all the potential and right to defend the
country. The defence of Pakistan is in strong hands. India would never want
war because if it breaks out, then god forbid the situation might develop
into a nuclear war."

On Monday Pakistani Air Force warplanes, whose pilots are on high alert,
flew over the cities of Lahore and Rawalpindi, igniting fears that India had
alerady launched attack against LeT sites. Flights bound for Dubai from
Lahore and another from Quetta were halted while all entry passes at Lahore
airport have been cancelled. Sources said that such measures were taken for
landing of the PAF aircraft in case of any emergency while they flew over
Lahore and Rawalpindi. However, Pakistani officials denied that PAF fighter
jets were flying to counter Indian attacks. PAF warplanes continued to
patrol the skies over Lahore today, reports Pakistan's GEO
TV<http://www.geo.tv/12-23-2008/31170.htm>
.

According to "reliable sources" cited by Pakistan's
Post<http://thepost.com.pk/Fb_ShortNewsT.aspx?fbshortid=3682&fcatid=14&fstatus=Current&bcatid=14&bstatus=Current>today,
the reason for this flurry of flights by the PAF was a report that
*the Indian and Israeli air forces allegedly planned to attack the country's
nuclear installations on Monday*: "Pakistan's Nuclear Control and Command
Authority was directed to take necessary measures to deal with any emergency
situation." Yesterday, Pakistan's
Nation<http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/23-Dec-2008/IAF-plans-to-hit-targets-in-24-hours/1>presented
a similar scenario, sans Israeli involvement:

*Indian Air Force intends to hit certain target in Lahore and Azad Kashmir
during the next 24 hours in the same way as the US Air Force is doing in the
tribal areas of Pakistan, the sources confided. As per source Pakistan
military leadership has refused to accept US pressure and deployed F-7
fighter jets at Lahore Air-base which are fully capable of not only
intercepting Indian strikes but also counter-attacking effectively. All the
air-force stations have been put on high alert and military leadership has
made it clear on the US that in case of Indian attack, Pakistan will at once
discontinue logistic support to US and shift it army from the western front
to the eastern.*

The tense situation between India and Pakistan is further complicated by
Islamabad's alliance with Beijing and the stateless Taliban, ousted from
Afghanistan in October 2001 and now operating from bases in Pakistan's
North-West Frontier Province. On December 15 Pakistan's General Tariq Majid
travelled to China <http://thenews.jang.com.pk/updates.asp?id=62542> on a
weeklong official visit, during which time he met with General Chen Bindge,
Chief of General Staff of the People's Liberation Army. After the talks,
both countries signed an agreement that reaffirmed their commitment to
combat terrorism and enhance military cooperation. PLA General Chen
"appreciated Pakistan's role in war against terrorism and assured China's
full support."

No doubt Pakistan appreciates China's support, but the Pakistani government
is probably not so eager to accept the endorsement of the outlawed
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. In a telephone interview from an "undisclosed
location" with Pakistan's The
News<http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Taliban_to_support_Pak_in_case_of_hostilities_with_India/articleshow/3878794.cms>,
Baitullah Mehsud, leader of the outlawed and exiled terrorist government,
threatened to hurl hundreds of suicide bombers at invading Indian forces:

*Hundreds of our fighters have been given suicide jackets and
explosive-laden vehicles for protection of the border in case of any
aggression by the Indian forces. The time has come, to wage a real jihad
that the Taliban had been waiting for. We know very well that the visible
and invisible enemies of the country have been planning to weaken this lone
Islamic nuclear power. But the mujahideen will foil all such nefarious
designs of our enemies.

*The Taliban <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban> may have already
infiltrated India *and* Pakistan's armed forces, as revealed in a story
filed by New York
Times<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/24/world/asia/24kashmir.html?ref=world>journalists
based in southern Asia, where it is already December 24:

*The police in Indian-administered Kashmir announced Tuesday the arrests of
three suspected suicide bombers who they said were Pakistani nationals using
fake Indian identity cards. The men were found at a hotel in Jammu, the
winter capital of Kashmir state. The police declined to say how they were
tipped off. Kuldeep Khoda, the state director general of police, told
reporters in Jammu that they were members of the banned Jaish-e-Muhammad
organization, based in Pakistan. Indian police described one of the men as a
Pakistani soldier.

*Meanwhile, in an effort to thwart another Indo-Pakistani war, Admiral Mike
Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, hastened today to
Islamabad<http://story.irishsun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/2411cd3571b4f088/id/445346/cs/1/>,
where he met with President Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's army chief General
Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, and national security head Mehmood Ali Durrani. During
these meetings, contends the Pakistani
media<http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/23-Dec-2008/IAF-plans-to-hit-targets-in-24-hours/>,
*Mullen urged the country's leadership to stand down in the event that the
Indian Air Force bombs terrorist bases on Pakistani soil.* Unimpressed by
such a suggestion General Kayani rumbled that his forces will
retaliate<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24839628-2703,00.html>against
Indian surgical strikes "within minutes." "The armed forces are
fully prepared to meet any eventuality,as his men are ready to sacrifice for
their country," General Kayani assured President Zardari.

This is Mullen's second trip to Pakistan this month. No doubt he is also
concerned about the presence of 32,000 US troops in neighboring Afghanistan,
fighting the Tablian insurgency, should a nuclear exchange occur between
India and Pakistan. Incoming President Barack Hussein Obama has pledged to
support <http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081220/pl_afp/afghanistanusmilitary>a
troop surge in Afghanistan that will double the number of US soldiers
on
the ground by redeploying them from Iraq.