[Reader-list] Modi losing ground in Gujarat - Praful Bidwai (A pre election-result analysis)

[Kshmendra Kaul]

Now that Modi has won, an amusing read is provided by Praful Bidwai's (pre election-result) pronouncement featured in "The News" from Pakistan on 15/12/2007.  "The News" incidentally is a part of the India-basher "JANG GROUP" which includes GEO TV.
   
  In support of his contentions, Bidwai uses, the now to be laughed at, NDTV poll forecasts. Not only did Prannoy and Dorab, the celebrated psephologists of NDTV go horribly wrong in their predictions, but NDTV (especially Barkha Dutt) presented a sorry picture of themselves in their reportage and analyses of Modi's win.
   
  Bidwai had his own summarised gems of wisdom to seal the prediction of doom for Modi. He contended:
   
  """"" Four broad factors explain it: shifts in the party's social support-base; reassertion in Gujarat of what may be called normal or mundane politics vis-à-vis ideology-driven politics; changes in intra-Sangh Parivar relations and; Modi's personalised and confrontationist campaign."""""""""""

   
  Kshmendra Kaul
   
   
   
          Modi losing ground in Gujarat                  By Praful Bidwai 
12/15/2007
   
      A month ago, most Gujarat politicians, social scientists, civil society activists, bureaucrats and citizens were agreed on the dead certainty of the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in the assembly elections. Hindutva's appeal, and Chief Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, they believed, would ensure its win -- albeit with a smaller margin. Today, they'll tell you, the BJP could lose -- despite the Congress's timid campaign. The Congress skirted issues pertaining to the violence of 2002, didn't quite take on the BJP's "Gujarat Gaurav" campaign, or gather the nerve to field more than half-a-dozen Muslim candidates in a state where 20 Muslim MLAs used to get elected. But it might still get catapulted into power.
  

All exit polls after the first phase of voting in 87 constituencies (of Gujarat's total of 182) point to a swing away from the BJP. An NDTV poll forecasts a loss of 13 BJP seats, placing it behind the Congress by three seats. Such a defeat will deliver the BJP a seismic shock and mark a historic setback for the Sangh Parivar. LK Advani's laughable anointment as the party's prime ministerial candidate will only aggravate the shock. Ideologically, the setback will be even more severe than the BJP's rout in the 2004 national elections. It will prove that a politics based on religious hatred, which rejects pluralism and secularism, is not sustainable even in a "Hindutva laboratory" state.
  

On December 23, we'll know how the BJP has fared. But current estimates of its tally by civil servants and intelligence agencies vary from 70 to 80 seats, way below its 2002 score of 127. Even the state BJP's internal assessment is reportedly that it's sure to win only 63 seats; and optimistically, another 15 -- but still short of a majority. The BJP is clearly on a downswing in Gujarat. How and why has this come about? Four broad factors explain it: shifts in the party's social support-base; reassertion in Gujarat of what may be called normal or mundane politics vis-à-vis ideology-driven politics; changes in intra-Sangh Parivar relations and; Modi's personalised and confrontationist campaign.
  

The long phase of expansion of the BJP's social base in Gujarat seems to have ended. Between 1992 (Babri demolition) and 2002 (the communal massacre), the BJP split the Congress's traditional base among Gujarat's "core minorities", comprised of Adivasis, Dalits and Muslims, and also among middle-level layers like the Kolis. Thanks to Hindutva's appeal, the BJP attracted many votes from Adivasis and Dalits in 2002. Using the state machinery, it browbeat and disenfranchised Muslims and prevented them from voting against it.
  

However, over the past year or longer, not only are these groups returning to the Congress; the BJP has suffered a severe erosion of support amongst Kolis, and more important, the prosperous, powerful Leuva Patels, who wield clout in Saurashtra and Kutch (which together elect almost a third of Gujarat's MLAs). These social-base shifts can eliminate or reverse the small three percentage-point vote lead that the BJP enjoyed over the Congress in 2004, itself down from 10 points in 2002. This is happening in Saurashtra and the southern tribal belt, and also in parts of central and northern Gujarat.
  

It's only among urban upper-caste, upper-class Hindus that the BJP enjoys unshakable support. And although Gujarat is India's most urbanised state (with 40 per cent of the population in the cities), the upper-crust elite is too small to ensure electoral success. Second, Modi has concentrated all power and tried to demolish normal, routine or mundane politics based on deal-making and patronage. He totally bypasses the party and the Sangh Parivar. Even senior BJP functionaries have no access to him.
  

His calculation was that the banner of Gujarat's asmita (self-esteem or glory), "development" and "vibrant Gujarat" would produce magic. But the asmita slogan couldn't cover up the chasms and sleaze in Gujarat's society. "Development" got reduced to worship of growth without inclusion. And "vibrant Gujarat" is going exactly the way "India shining" did in 2004 -- exposing the BJP to popular scorn for celebrating elite-oriented, dualistic growth.
  

Reality is now catching up with Modi. In the absence of a communal atmosphere, Hindutva has become irrelevant to the public's mood. "Normal politics" and mundane issues like high electricity bills, expensive toll-ways and a wilting Bt-Cotton crop, are chipping away at the artificial edifice Modi tried to construct out of the tacky slogans of "Gujarat's glory", and tall claims about investment and industrialisation.
  

As this column noted (Oct 27), Gujarat's is a case of unbalanced growth and warped development. It's falling behind other large states in gender, health and environment indices. As many as 74 per cent of Gujarat's women and 47 per cent of its children are anaemic. Gujarat's infant mortality and malnutrition rates remain stubbornly high, especially in the rural areas. Gujarat's indices of patriarchy are frightening. The sex-ratio is an abysmal 487:1,000 in the 0-4 age-group and 571 in the 5-9 group (national averages, 515 and 632). Gujarat's health indices are barely higher than Orissa's. In the social sector spending -- as a proportion of public expenditure -- Gujarat ranks 19th among India's 21 major states.
  

Contrary to claims about abundant electricity supply, the Mumbai-based Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy says the Gujarat's power deficit averaged 10.7 per cent and peaked at 23.7 per cent in the past year. At any rate, the Congress has put Modi on the mat on the "development" agenda. A third adverse factor for Modi is serious infighting in the BJP. More than 40 "rebels" are contesting against the official candidates. Worse, the RSS, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Bharatiya Kisan Sangh and other Sangh front organisations have decided not to help the BJP. Absence of door-to-door campaigning by RSS pracharaks will deliver a major blow to the BJP, especially in the cities. No less significant will be the absence of canvassing by the Hindu-proselytising organisation, the Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram, in the tribal areas. The synergy these groups generated together was crucial to the BJP' victory in the past elections. Now some of them will work against the party -- a double whammy.
  

Finally, Modi ran a sectarian, foul and demagogic campaign, which used every conceivable low-level tactic. But he still failed to attract large audiences. No other BJP leader got a worthwhile public response either. By contrast, top Congress leaders' rallies were well-attended. Although their campaign was weak on secularism and social justice, it managed to corner Modi on governance and development issues. In response, a desperate Modi played the anti-Muslim card. He shamelessly justified the cold-blooded murder of Sohrabuddin Shaikh in a "fake encounter", and maligned Muslims. This blatantly violated the Election Commission's code of conduct, which prohibits hate speech and vilification of religious groups. It was an implicit and shocking admission of the state's complicity in murder. Ironically, this will only encourage Muslims to go out and vote against Modi.
  

The Election Commission has rightly taken note of his grave electoral malpractice. Sadly, to appear "even-handed", it also issued notice to Sonia Gandhi for her "merchants of death" speech. But the two speeches aren't even remotely comparable. The EC must correct this error of judgment and severely punish Modi. But what Modi most richly deserves is political punishment. Gujarat's electorate should send him packing.



The writer is a Delhi-based researcher, peace and human rights activist, and former newspaper editor. Email: prafulbidwai1 at yahoo.co.in
   
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