[Reader-list] "Gentle persuasion" in Kashmir!

[Shivam Vij शिवम् विज्]

Dear all,

In the article below, there is this rather revealing bit:

** Some intelligence agencies have also warned of a low-poll
percentage. But a senior police official said: "One cannot wait for
the perfect situation in Kashmir." According to him "gentle
persuasion" in rural and border areas will help improve turnout.
"After all, it is not a crime to ask people to vote. In several
countries, voting is mandatory," he argues. **

Nationalists and the weak-hearted are recommended to see no evil and
hear no evil for the next two months as the Indian state readies to
show its ugliest face in Kashmir.

best
shivam

o o o o

Turbulent J&K: Bracing for Polls?

As the poll panel meets in Delhi to decide when to hold elections in
Jammu and Kashmir, divergent signals are emerging from both the
regions. Whatever be the decision, the centre should tread cautiously,
writes George Joseph.

By George Joseph in Srinagar, 1 October 2008
Sakaal Times | http://www.sakaaltimes.com

After three months of continuous agitations and political uncertainty
in Kashmir and Jammu regions over the Amaranth land row, all eyes are
now on the Nirvachan Bhawan in New Delhi. The meeting of the Election
Commission on October 3 and 4 is likely to take that crucial decision
- when to hold polls in the volatile State. Indications are that the
EC may go for immediate elections beginning mid -November so as to
facilitate smooth polls in the wintry areas of the Valley and Ladakh.
"We are making all arrangements," says B R Sharma, chief electoral
officer of the State. "Now, it is in the hands of the Chief Election
Commissioner N Gopalaswami and his colleagues," says S S Bloeria,
advisor to Governor N N Vohra.

Not that advice from political parties and the Centre matters less.
Prihviraj Chavan, minister of state in the Prime Minister's Office,
who is also the AICC general-secretary in charge of J&K, recently
visited both the regions. In his capacity as a key minister, he held
detailed discussions with the Governor and other officials.

Chavan is learnt to have given vital inputs to the recommendations the
Union Government plans to give to the EC. He is learnt to have
submitted a report favouring polls. According to him, the political
costs - international and domestic - of postponing the polls are more
than of holding polls now. Even a low turn out poll is better. He held
the view that the separatists will get a shot in the arm if the polls
are delayed. Chavan also met Congress activists and all indications
suggest that the cadre has got the signal to get ready for the
electoral battle.

The BJP and many Jammu-based organisations are for an early poll. The
BJP hopes to ride on the regional sentiment created by the Amarnath
agitation. "If polls are delayed, it will be another step by the
Congress government to help the separatists," says state president
Ashok Khajuria.

But those in favour of postponement of elections have not given up
hope. PDP leader and former Union home minister Mufti Muhammed Sayeed
has been telling the Centre that alienation of the people will
escalate if polls are held.

If the mood of the rank and file of the PDP is any indication, the
party will boycott the polls if held soon. The state unit of the CPM
and many middle-level leaders in the National Conference and the
Congress also are wishing the polls are postponed. Said Abdul Nazir, a
middle-level Congress leader: "Most Congress workers want to tell the
high command that the polls should be deferred. But they could not
muster the courage." Some intelligence agencies have also warned of a
low-poll percentage. But a senior police official said: "One cannot
wait for the perfect situation in Kashmir." According to him "gentle
persuasion" in rural and border areas will help improve turnout.
"After all, it is not a crime to ask people to vote. In several
countries, voting is mandatory," he argues.

That certain scenarios are a forgone conclusion if polls are
announced. Several leaders of the separatist Jammu and Kashmir
Co-ordination Committee (JKCC), including Ali Shah Geelani, Mirwaiz
Umar Farooq and Yasin Mailk, may be detained. Already Geelani and some
others are under house arrest. "Better the JKCC leaders have a
sumptuous Eid feast. If polls are declared they would have to content
with sarkari food in detention centres soon after," quipped political
commentator Qayoom Zul?. In anticipation, the separatists have made
counter plans. JKCC has called for a "Lal Chowk chalo" rally in
Srinagar on October 6, where it expects to repeat the demonstration of
mass support for independence as done during the "UN office Chalo"
march and other three big rallies in last August.

Fearing arrest of leaders and clamping of curfew, the JKCC activists
are chalking out different strategies for the rally. It plans a "jail
bharo" agitation in case the polls are announced.

Committee leaders hinted that the protests will be peaceful so that
they can convince the international community that the "Kashmir
movement is a democratic one and not a terrorist organization.
"Campaign will be taken out for boycott of polls," says Hurriyat
leader Mustaq-ul-Islam, adding 'No election, no selection, we want
plebiscite' has been "our slogan".

"If polls are held soon, it will be remembered for its religious and
regional polarisation," says political analyst Tahir Mohiuddin. It
appears many political parties are basing their calculations on the
divides created by the Amarnath agitation. National Conference
strategists feel the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, which has 46 out
of the 87 seats in the State, will overwhelmingly vote for the party.
It has hopes on the nine Muslim-majority seats in Jammu region and the
two seats in Kargil.

Farooq Abdullah, patron of the National Conference, has been openly
favouring polls.

BJP leaders have been claiming they will touch a record double-digit
?gure in the Hindu-majority Jammu vaulting from the pathetic lone seat
at present. Several leaders of the Shri Amarnath Yatra Sanagarsh
Samiti(SAYSS) too hope to reach Assembly this time. The Ladakh Union
Territory Front, which won both the seats in Leh district uncontested
last elections, is hoping to repeat its performance on the regional
plank. "There are chances that moderate forces like the CPM and the
Panthers' Party may be squeezed in this polarised politics," observed
Mohiuddin.

State officials have done detailed exercises regarding the security
arrangements and logistics for the polls. Additional para-military
forces will move into the State as and when polls are announced.
Government has made alternate plans in case the polling officials are
asked to boycott the duty by the JKCC. "Things are not that much bad.
Hundreds turned up at the recent recruitment rallies for policemen,"
pointed out State police chief Kuldeep Khoda. As political parties and
the state government anxiously wait for the EC decision, an official
remarked aptly: "Nothing can be certainly said. There is always a
suspense about Kashmir issues."

SOUND BYTES FROM A VALLEY OF DISCONTENT



MUFTI MOHAMMAD SAYEED
Patron, PDP

Are you preparing for polls?

Our focus is to identify with the people of Kashmir, who have been
facing hardships due to the agitations by the communal forces in
Jammu. The economic blockade had hurt Kashmiris. We want to take up
their problems and stand by the people in this hour of crisis.

Will you take part in the polls?

Elections are no priority for us right now. If the matter comes to the
fore, our party will discuss it.



FAROOQ ABDULLAH
Patron, NC

How do you look at the election scene?

The Election Commission of India will decide and conduct polls in
Jammu and Kashmir whenever it feels suitable. These Hurriyat people,
Geelani or Mirwaiz, are not the ones to decide on polls. Their
programmes are damaging the State economy.

Will you join the polls?

Let the decision come. Our party leaders will meet and take
appropriate decision as and when it is called for. But the Hurriyat
agitations are disturbing normal life and disrupting educational
system. They should make realistic demands.



CHAMAN LAL GUPTA
BJP leader

When do you want the elections?

The Bharatiya Janata Party wants the polls to be held at the earliest.
Not a single day should be delayed in the restoration of a popular
government with a mandate of the people in the State.

What are the prospects for the party?

BJP will win historic number of seats this time.

The Amarnath agitation has exposed the double standards and 'psuedo
secularist' policies followed by the Congress. People are flocking to
the BJP in Jammu.



YASIN MALIK
Chairman, JKLF

Do you think elections will have an impact?

During the past 62 years India has conducted several elections here,
which have turned into an exercise of rigging and mockery. Instead of
holding farcical polls, India should agree to an arrangement to allow
people to express their opinion. Kashmiris are overwhelmingly for
freedom.

Will you hold anti-poll agitation?

Polls have no relevance in Kashmir situation. Again and again, this
has been proved right.



ALI SHAH GEELANI
Hurriyat Chairman

Will you oppose the polls?

The people of Kashmir have nothing to do with the polls. What they
want is self-determination as per the United Nations resolutions. They
have reiterated this recently by taking out huge rallies of lakhs of
people in Srinagar, Pampore and other places.

But you had contested the polls and won?

Those were different times. And we did it only for local
administration as per UN resolutions. But then, India derailed those
limited systems. Many leaders, who took part in polls, later became
the leaders of the armed struggle.


POLL FACTFILE

Total Seats: 87
Kashmir
Jammu
Ladakh

Tenure of assembly: 6 years

Total Electorate
64.97 lakh

Jammu: 30.84 lakh
Kashmir: 32.60 lakh
Ladakh: 1.52 lakh