[Reader-list] Five myths about the Muslim vote

[Taha Mehmood]

Dear All,

In the post below Prof. Yadav analyze the voting tendencies of the
mythical 'Indian Muslim' and comes with a conclusion that, ' their
political and electoral behaviour is no different from that of any
other community'.

The myths surrounding 'Indian Muslims' according to Prof.Yadav are-

'First, they vote in large numbers and participate more in politics,
much more than the rest of the electorate.

Secondly, they vote ‘en bloc’ for one candidate or party.

Thirdly, Muslim voters are more ‘strategic’ in their voting and tend
to hold back their decisions until the last moment.

Fourthly, they are less autonomous in their decision making and more
likely to be influenced by clerics or traditional community leaders,
guided more by pan-Islamic or community issues rather than by
quotidian interests.

Finally, they are less supportive of democracy than the rest of the population.'

Please read the article below for more.

What I find interesting is that even in these popularly held
assumptions about Muslims there is a dichotomy, otherwise how could
Muslims 'vote in large numbers', as indicated by myth number one and
still be 'less supportive of democracy' as assumption number four
would like us to believe. Not that voting is the sole criteria for
showing one's support for democracy but surely it is an important
aspect if one wants to support democracy isn't it?

With warm regards

Taha

http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/20/stories/2009042053731200.htm

Five myths about the Muslim vote

There is a body of evidence that shows their political and electoral
behaviour is no different from that of any other community, says
Yogendra Yadav

There are five very common beliefs about the political behaviour of
Indian Muslims. First, they vote in large numbers and participate more
in politics, much more than the rest of the electorate. Secondly, they
vote ‘en bloc’ for one candidate or party. Thirdly, Muslim voters are
more ‘strategic’ in their voting and tend to hold back their decisions
until the last moment. Fourthly, they are less autonomous in their
decision making and more likely to be influenced by clerics or
traditional community leaders, guided more by pan-Islamic or community
issues rather than by quotidian interests. Finally, they are less
supportive of democracy than the rest of the population.

The belief is that the Indian Muslim harbours a deep sense of
alienation vis-À-vis the political system and feels excluded from the
democratic mainstream.

This view assumes that Muslims are an extraordinary political
community, distinct and internally monolithic. Some of these
assumptions conflict with others. Yet, there is something about modern
India and Islam that generates political myth making.

The supposition is that unlike other social groups, divisions of
region, class, age, gender and caste either do not matter or play a
very secondary role in shaping the politics of the Indian Muslims.
These perceptions are shared by a wide section: Muslims and
non-Muslims, political activists and laypeople. Like all stereotypes,
they contain an element of truth which is distorted and blown out of
all proportion.

Let us examine each of the five beliefs in the light of the available
evidence. The impression that the community turns out in large numbers
to vote stems from the fact that constituencies with a high
concentration of Muslims (above 30 per cent) tend to have a higher
turnout. But this is largely due to communal polarisation, a
phenomenon that leads both Muslims and Hindus to vote in larger
numbers. In any case, the number of such constituencies is very small.
Muslims constitute 13.4 per cent of the country’s population, and
perhaps make up a smaller percentage of the electoral roll. Most
Muslims live in constituencies where they do not account for even 10
per cent of the electorate.
Election studies

The evidence gathered by the National Election Studies (NES) carried
out by CSDS shows that the Muslim turnout is not very different from
the rest of the electors. In the last four general elections, the
turnout among Muslims was 59 per cent while the all-India figure was
60 per cent. In fact, the figures in 2004 suggest the turnout among
Muslims was much lower than average.

When it comes to more active forms of engagement such as participation
in election campaigns, there is virtually nothing that separates
Muslims from Hindus or indeed from any other religious minority.
Education and class are factors that play a role here, but not
religion. Muslims are as likely to declare themselves members of a
party or identify with a political party (though a little more likely
to dislike a party) as Hindus.

The evidence on Muslim voting preference in general elections does not
validate the image of Muslims as a ‘vote bank.’ In 2004, the Congress
and its allies got 53 per cent of the Muslim vote while the BJP and
its allies got about 11 per cent. The other big vote-getter outside
these two was the Samajwadi Party at 16 per cent. That is hardly en
bloc voting.

If we go down to the State level, we find that the Muslim vote tends
to consolidate. Still, nowhere near enough to suggest they vote en
bloc. Muslims resort to en bloc voting only in States such as
Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi when faced with
situations of no-choice, when the real competition is between the
Congress and the BJP. The Muslim support for the Congress goes down in
States such as Andhra Pradesh and Assam, where there is a third
option. So does it in Kerala and West Bengal, where the BJP or its
allies are not real competitors.

In general, the pattern of Muslim voting at the State level is similar
to that of a large caste such as the Jats or Brahmins.

Again, there is little evidence to support the third and the fourth
beliefs that Muslim voters are influenced by considerations that set
them apart from others. Like everyone else, Muslim voters are first of
all influenced by the party, then by the candidate, followed by such
things as caste.

Muslim men and women are as influenced by clerics or others in
deciding who to vote for as any other section of the population. As
for making up their minds about who to vote for, Muslims are no more
‘strategic’ than others. Thirty-three per cent of Hindus surveyed said
they made up their mind on the polling day or the day before that; the
corresponding figure for Muslims was 31 per cent.

Finally, on the question of democracy, the voting pattern in India
provides solid evidence against the prevailing Islamophobia.

Clearly, Indian Muslims are not opting out of democratic politics.
There is no difference whatsoever between Hindus and Muslims in their
stated support for democracy. This is borne out by the evidence from
the NES 2004 and is supported by that in the State of Democracy in
South Asia, a five-country comparison carried out by the CSDS.

The evidence showing up these five beliefs as myths should be placed
along with two well documented set of facts about Indian Muslims. The
first set was brought home starkly by the Sachar Committee Report. It
showed that Muslims are the not merely disadvantaged, but are also
often a discriminated minority when it comes to education, employment,
housing and economic opportunity.
Muslim representation

The second piece of information has been unearthed by an impressive
analysis of the Muslim MPs and MLAs by Professor Iqbal Ansari. His
data shows that, barring 1980 and 1984, Muslim representation has been
less than half their share of the population. At the State level too,
the proportion of Muslim representatives has been around half or less
of their population share.

The proportion improves in those States (Kerala, Assam, West Bengal)
where there are concentrated pockets of Muslims or where there are
parties that represent the community such as the Indian Union Muslim
League (IUML) in Kerala, the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) in
Assam and the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. The proportion
drops dramatically in States such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and
Gujarat where the Muslim population is dispersed and the BJP
constitutes one pole of a bipolar political system.

Dovetail the five myths and these two facts about Muslim politics and
we begin to see the political tragedy of the Indian Muslim. Like the
African-American population in the United States, they are a neglected
constituency. In that country, the Republicans are not keen to do
anything to improve their lot as they know they won’t get the black
vote. As for the Democrats, they don’t do very much either for they
know they will get their votes all the same. The myth about a
homogenous Muslim vote bank serves to keep the Muslim community as a
political hostage — earlier one of the Congress and now one of the
Congress and regional parties such as the SP and the Rashtriya Janata
Dal (RJD).

Against this background, the 2009 elections offer an opening for
Indian Muslims. In many States, newer formations are coming up to
challenge the monopoly of established claimants to the Muslim ‘vote
bank.’ The AUDF in Assam is challenging the monopoly of the Congress,
the Milli Council in Uttar Pradesh is challenging the SP, the RJD is
faced with the rise of pasmanda (backward) Muslim politics in Bihar,
and the IUML faces the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Kerala.

True, much of this challenge comes from the quarter of what can be
called regressive and communal politics. Many of these new formations
may prove to be short lived and opportunistic.

But in a way, their existence and growth represent a desire in the
community to break away from being treated like a political hostage
and to address its economic backwardness.

[This article draws upon an ongoing research project in collaboration
with Dr. Sanjeer Alam and Dr. Hilal Ahmed]