[Reader-list] Bhasha Dam: A Tomb Stone of Gilgit-Baltistan’s Aspirations

[Pawan Durani]

http://pakistanpal.wordpress.com/2009/02/09/bhasha-dam-a-tomb-stone-of-gilgit-baltistan%E2%80%99s-aspirations/


This year Pakistan is facing an acute water shortage and the shortage during
the current Rabi crop is estimated to be around 35 to 40 per cent, which
will adversely affect the wheat output, critical for the country's food
security. Pakistan also faces an acute power shortage, which has exacerbated
by the reduced outflow from Tarbela Dam. To tide over the problems, Pakistan
is building Bhasha Dam on River Indus, which is the largest dam being built
in Pakistan since Tarbela was completed in 1976. Continuous silting has
reduced the storage capacity of Tarbela and Mangla dams considerably. It had
been estimated that to tide over the problems of Pakistan's water shortages
it needed to build a dam of Tarbela's size (world's largest rock filled dam)
every seven years. However, political discord and lack of clear vision among
Pakistan's ruling elite have prevented even a single dam from being
constructed during the last three decades. For a country where agriculture
contributes one fifth of the national GDP and employs over 40 percent of the
labour force, it could be a costly oversight.

The experts opine that the ideal site for building a mega dam in Pakistan is
Kalabagh, which could provide millions of acres feet of water for irrigation
in addition to cheap electricity. Though Punjab, the most populous province
of Pakistan has always been supportive of Kalabagh, the other three
provinces have been resolutely opposed to it. Although Sindh is opposed to
any dam on Indus, NWFP feels that a dam at Kalabagh will inundate large
agricultural tracts as well as the thriving city of Nowshera. Inspite of
being small, NWFP has always wielded considerable influence on the security
establishment of Pakistan and it was therefore impossible for the then
military rulers to overlook its objections. Despite General Musharraf's
fervent attempts, a consensus eluded Kalabagh. In fact Asfandar Wali Khan,
the ANP leader, went to the extent of asking him to chose between Kalabagh
Dam and the federation.

As a result Musharraf in the year 2006, settled for less 'contentious'
Bhasha Dam to be built as the first mega dam as part of his 'Water Vision
2025', which envisages building at least five dams across Pakistan and
Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK). The site of the proposed Bhasha dam is
located on the Indus River 314 kilometres upstream of Tarbela dam and about
120 km downstream of its confluence with the Gilgit River. Its proponents
claim that it could enhance the lifespan of Tarbela dam; by reducing
silting. It is also expected to have a longer life span than Kalabagh as the
sediment load at Bhasha is considerably lower than at Kalabagh. The
construction is expected to start by September 2009 and is estimated to cost
a whopping $ 12 billion.

The dam is slated to have 12 power generating units of 375 MW capacity and
the average annual hydel power to be generated by the dam is estimated to be
19,000 GWH. The dam with a height of 272 m,will be the highest
roller-compacted concrete dam in the world. There will be 14 gates of 11.0 x
16.5 m size. The gross capacity of the dam will be 7.3 Million Acre Feet
(MAF) and the live (usable) capacity of the dam will be 6.4 MAF. A number of
roads need to be built to provide access to the project site and the funding
requirement has been forecast as Rs 31 billion, however, only Rs 2.6 billion
have been provided in the budget for the current financial year. For the
project a meagre sum of Rs 200 million has been assigned in the budget and
the bulk of funding was expected from the World Bank and the ADB. However,
the World Bank has refused to fund the dam or any other project in POK.
Moreover, with the global economic slowdown, funding from any international
multilateral organisation may become a serious problem and may further
slowdown the already slow progress of the project.

However, the dam will not only take much longerJanuary 2009 5 to build, it
will inundate large tracts of land in Gilgit-Batistan. Besides it would also
inundate 120 Kilometre stretch of Karakoram Highway, which links China with
Pakistan and provides the main access to this otherwise inaccessible region.
The dam is therefore strongly opposed by the local population but the
hapless population of Gilgit-Baltistan, without any representation in
Islamabad's policy making institutions, has no avenue of getting its voice
heard in Islamabad. The local population already has serious grievances
against the Pakistan government for the continuing 'oppression,' for the
last six decades. The government has not only not allowed the people any say
in the decision making process, it has even prevented them from forming
unions.

The dam has grave socio-economic and environmental implications. It will
displace the residents from at least 32 villages in Diamer District as soon
the construction work starts. The large tracts of fertile land, which is
extremely scarce in Gilgit- Baltistan will get inundated, making the region
even more dependent on Pakistan for its food requirements. The construction
will bring in large number of workers from outside the region. As it is the
State Subjects Rule, which prevented outsiders from acquiring land in the
region has been done away with, consequently, the migrants have been
settling in the region and altering the unique ethnic composition of the
region. The dam may further disturb the already delicate ethnic and
sectarian balance in the region. The construction of a huge reservoir in a
tectonic faultline may result in serious ecological complications. The
recurrence of a massive earthquake like the one experienced in the
Mirpur-Muzaffarabad region of POK in 2005, could lead to severe calamity as
a breach in a huge reservoir like Bhasha Dam could inundate most of the
cities located downstream on the banks of Indus.

The fundamental problem with the dam is that while almost the entire
inundation will take place in Gilgit-Baltistan, the power plant will be
located in Bhasha in NWFP and hence it will receive the royalty from the
power generation.Although the entire water in the reservoir will be
available for irrigation down stream in Pakistan, not even an acre of land
will be irrigated in so called 'Northern Areas' (Gilgit-Baltistan). As a sop
to the local population the name of the dam was changed from Bhasha to
Diamer-Bhasha to give them a false sense of ownership and it was announced
that the royalty will be shared with the 'Northern Areas'. However, NWFP
government has refused to share the royalty and Pakistani constitution
supports their contention. The provision in the constitution states that the
royalty would go to the state where the powerhouse for generating
electricity is located. However, this is not a valid justification for the
NWFP to reap the benefits of royalty from the dam, as the constitution of
Pakistan does not apply to Gilgit-Baltistan, where the dam is actually
located.

There is another dimension of this dam that needs to be highlighted and it
is related to the preservation of archaeological assets. In April 2008,
there were reports that approximately one thousand rare stone carvings,
sculptures and statues of Buddha were discovered at the construction site of
the dam. Pakistan as a signatory to international conventions is obliged to
protect these heritage sites. However,obliterating the region's pre-Islamic
past may suit Pakistan's political and ideological objectives, but India's
reticence is baffling. The dam is being built in a territory that legally
belongs to India and the population of the region, who are 'de jure'
citizens of India are being persecuted to facilitate its construction. The
Government of India must raise its voice against persecution of its
citizens. It will be difficult for Pakistan to obtain funding for the
project, if India educates the international multilateral organisations
about the illegality of the project and consequent violation of the basic
human rights of the population of Gilgit-Baltistan. Its unique
ethnonationalist character and pristine environment is being threatened to
provide irrigation and electricity to Pakistan, without any concurrence of
the local population or India.