[Reader-list] "Modi loses vote share in Gujarat" (the real story)

[Kshmendra Kaul]

The reproduced piece from TOI gives some elements of the 'real story' of how Political Parties have fared in the 2000 Elections.
 
"Vote-Share" is the 'real story'. "Seat-Share" is an aberrational misrepresentation.
 
Kshmendra
 
"Modi loses vote share in Gujarat"
18 May 2009, 0323 hrs IST, TNN
 

With vote share figures coming in on Sunday, there are several dramatic stories to tell. One of them may not appear as dramatic but has high political significance.
 
In Gujarat, the BJP's vote share has declined since 2004 by 0.9%, while the Congress too has lost 0.5%, explaining why the results were pretty much the same.
 
But in the status quo lies a major loss of face for Narendra Modi. Unlike in 2004, this time Modi assumed the role of one of the lead campaigners for BJP, was touted as a dynamo of development and projected as the party's prime ministerial aspirant for the next Lok Sabha polls. Considering his top billing, the fact that under him the party actually lost vote share in his state shows up the limits of his appeal.
 
Overall, the tally of seats chalked up by the major players in India's political theatre tells only part of the story of the huge changes that have taken place over the last five years. It does not reveal, for instance, that the Congress has gained over 2% in vote share to reach 28.6%, while the BJP has dropped almost 3.5% to reach 18.8%. In other words, the gap between the big two, which was wafer thin till 1999 has now reached almost 10%.
 
A closer look at the vote shares in some major states reveals even more startling trends. In Uttar Pradesh, for example, the Congress has hiked its vote share from a mere 12% last time to 18.3% now. In the process, it has overtaken the BJP in the state, which has slid from 22.2% to 17.5%. Again, while the SP has retained its numero uno status in terms of seats, it has actually lost 3.4% in vote share, while the BSP has gained 2.7%, with the result that it now has 27.4% to the SP's 23.3% - a sizeable lead in a state as fragmented as UP.
 
In Andhra Pradesh, YSR has Chiranjeevi to thank for the Congress' unexpectedly strong showing. For, the Congress has bettered its 2004 performance in Lok Sabha seats despite its vote share going down from 41.6% last time to 39% in these elections. With Chiranjeevi's newly formed Praja Rajyam picking up an astounding 15.7% of the votes, however, the TDP suffered a sharp drop in its vote share from 33.1% to 24.9%, allowing YSR a comfortable ride back to power. 
 
In West Bengal, it wasn't really the arithmetic of a united opposition that did in the Left. The CPM alone lost 5.5% in vote share dropping from 38.6% to 33.1% and its allies in the Left also shed two per cent, so that the front's combined vote share came down from 50.8% last time to 43.3% this time. Despite the Congress also losing a wee bit - thanks largely to the fact that it contested fewer seats, the Trinamool's increase of 10.2% in vote share was more than enough to do the damage.
 
In Bihar, the JD(U) has gained only modestly with its share rising from 22.4% to 24%, and the BJP has actually dropped slightly, but the RJD's vote share has plummeted by over 11% - from 30.7% last time to just 19.3% now - and Paswan's LJP has lost another 1.6% in vote share. The Congress, despite contesting on its own, has raised its share from 4.5% to 10.3%, but that huge jump didn't yield seats because of the low base on which it came.
 
In Rajasthan, too, there has been a massive swing of votes, the BJP losing 12.4% of the vote share to come down to 36.6% and the Congress gaining 5.8% to reach 47.2%. The two things combined explain why the situation has got almost exactly reversed in the state from five years ago. In Maharashtra, as in Andhra, the UPA can thank a newly emerged party for its good showing.
 
Like the Praja Rajyam in AP, Raj Thackeray's MNS in Maharashtra did enough damage to the opposition, particularly the Shiv Sena, to ensure that the UPA was left sitting pretty. The MNS' vote share of a tad over 4% in the state may not seem like much, but considering this was concentrated in eight seats in the Mumbai region, apart from two in Nashik and Pune, the impact was much greater than the number would suggest. 
 
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Modi-loses-vote-share-in-Gujarat/articleshow/4544583.cms
 
 
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