[Reader-list] Interesting discussion on the future course of Pakistan

[Rahul Asthana]

Please click on the comments link at the bottom to read the discussion online.
In any case,I am posting the contents in the body of mail.
Its long,but well worth the read.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/01/suicide_bomber_kills_25.php

The Long War Journal
READER COMMENTS: "Suicide bomber kills 90 at volleyball game in Pakistan"

Posted by Marlin at January 1, 2010 1:03 PM ET:

Wow! The death and injury toll was really significant. You wonder when the breaking point will come for the Pakistani people to say 'enough is enough'?

    A suicide bomber in a vehicle blew himself up at a volleyball game in northwest Pakistan on Friday and a television station said more than 70 people were killed.

    The station, Express 24/7, said 65 people were wounded and more than 20 houses destroyed. The attack took place in a village that opposes al Qaeda-backed Taliban insurgents, officials said.

    [...]

    Local police chief Ayub Khan said the bomber blew himself up in an SUV in the middle of the field and there was believed to be a second vehicle which fled the scene.

    "One was blown up here while the second fled to an unknown location. We believe it may be used to attack some other place," he told Reuters by telephone.

Reuters: More than 70 dead in Pakistan volleyball blast -TV

Posted by omar at January 1, 2010 4:16 PM ET:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/wo...a/02pstan.html

I wrote this note on my group in response to the above news. Its obviously targeted at a Pakistani audience. comments welcome.
Another terrible bombing, this time in Lakki Marwat. It seems the suicidal maniac was headed for a peace committee meeting but could not get there due to heavy security, so he hit the wall of a playground and went to meet the 72 virgins short of his final target. Sadly, there was a volleyball game going on in the playground and there were a lot of spectators. TV is saying 70 or more are dead and the death toll could rise.
Since this particular tragedy has struck poor pathans in a small town, its not going to register for too long on the minds of the Pakistani elite, who will no doubt be back to discussing blackwater safehouses within two days max. But while some vague sense of outrage and disorientation still exists, I am going to throw out some random thoughts and make some predictions...the purpose is to invite all of you to make some predictions of your own. Predictions are what distinguish science from fantasy. Social change is too complex to be modeled like the physical sciences (at least at this point) but still, unless we can make a prediction, our models are worthless...so here goes.
1. I think the neo-wahabi paradigm which lies at the heart of the jihadi operation in Pakistan (the network obviously extends into Afghanistan and other places and crucial sources lie in Saudi Arabia, but the largest physical node is in Pakistan) is not compatible with "normal" existence in the globalized world and its going to be slowly and painfully pushed further and further away from the mainstream. This process of separating it from its "mainstream" supporters like the high command of the Pak army is going to accelerate. Friends who believe the army is irreversibly pro-jihadi are not correct. The army WAS pro-jihadi and is still terribly confused about whether they can save "good jihadis" for future use against India , but they will be pushed to give them up by circumstances. The army and the jihadis will stand against each other one day. GHQ may not know it, but one day it will even fight against old friends like Masood Azhar and Hafiz Saeed. Maybe
 not in weeks or months, but certainly in years.
2. Recurrent waves of anti-Americanism and "paknationalism" will confuse the process. Old Nationalists will struggle with their 60 years worth of anti-indian training with the need to make an accomodation not just with the Indian state but with our own Indian heritage.Old leftists will struggle to align their anti-imperialist models and their issues with capitalism with the need to cooperate with the imperial war machine.Swarms of ex-foreign secretaries and retired generals will display their utter confusion on TV for many months to come. But the fact is, the jihadi paradigm is retrogressive, indiscriminately violent, and unable to deliver relief from ANY of the multiple real grievances and conflicts that various classes and groups have against others all over the world. All this sound and fury will blow over and most of these people will end up compromising deeply held beliefs to deal with this menace. Being human, they will do so without necessarily
 admitting it even to themselves, but in whatever messy form, they will do it.

3. Many respected commentators will take a while to overcome their own habits of automatic self-censorship. Lesser known commentators will push the envelope first and better known ones will step forward more aggressively only after they realize that A, B or C can actually be said without the heavens falling. Some friends will be surprised at how dramatically the tone will shift from hunting for Jews and Hindus under every bed to openly identifying the jihadis AND their fellow travellers as a terrorist menace that will have to be dealt with before we can come back to the arguments about imperialism and "the metropolitan XYZ"...in other words, before we can become just another "normal country", stuggling with all the issues raised by the existence of 7 billion unequally placed humans on one planet...

Posted by Xavier at January 1, 2010 9:12 PM ET:

Marlin,

This event is insignificant for Pak mainstream since its against Pashtuns. The media and the elite only care about attacks in Punjab and to some extent Sindh.
-----------------------


Omar,

Nice analysis, but I guess you are too optimistic. Your prediction will probably happen in an alternate universe. I am too cynical about future.

One comment: Any model must have a mathematical formulation(physical sciences) or a set of rigorous verbal statements which are consistent with each other and which will lead to a meaningful prediction. The later is a very weak model as it lacks mathematical formulation.

Modeling brains and thinking is an ongoing process (recent research in neurology is breathtaking) but getting a mathematical model is necessary to predict what path a society takes. And there are many unforeseen circumstances that need to be considered. That, if happens, is way into future, probably centuries.

The mathematical modeling of thinking of a single person takes probably all the computing power we have and more.

But my guess(and nothing more) is that US will leav AFPak by 2011, ISI/Army will be in bed with Taliban and the same violence continues until another attack(probably nuclear) on West/China. Another war in this region is inevitable.

Posted by Glenmore at January 1, 2010 10:41 PM ET:

Eventually this kind of tactic proved Zarqawi's undoing. Hard to believe the Taliban have a monopoly on ruthlessness and 'Will' in that population.

Posted by KW64 at January 2, 2010 2:12 AM ET:

While killing tribal leaders that oppose them has worked well for Al Queda and the Taliban, killing masses of ordinary civilians openly and deliberately will work against them. The people will turn to the army to protect them even if they did not much like the army before. I just hope the army is up to the task of protecting them.

Posted by T Ruth at January 2, 2010 6:35 AM ET:

Omar sahib,

I hope your foresight materialises. Even if so, yes i have my doubts, it'll come at a terrible price if the timeline is a relaxed one. This sacrifice by the villagers of Lakki is sadly a small fraction of this potentially monumental price.

Why can't the Pakistani leadership break once and for all and make a clean breast of things NOW?

In order to save Pakistan why is it so difficult for Kayani, Gilani, Zardari and Nawaz Sharif to stand together at one podium and declare that the Govts collective policies of the past re: The Taliban have failed. That:

*Afghanistan must stand as an independent State, not a client.

*The relationship with India is renewable.

*Pakistan can forge constructive economic relationships with the US, the West, China, Iran and India, (all of whom would love to see a democratic Pakistan flourish), amongst others.

From this platform, having released the past, Pakistan can go full-throttle with credibility and strength after the WHOLE of The Taliban, AQ and their affiliates.

In my view, the greatest risk in this approach is not political, but military, ie

-Can the military embrace this new diminished, but focussed, role or will it divide, or simply be unable to change its essential psychology? (Remember the adage that the only one that wants a change is a wet baby...).

-Is the army up to the job of eliminating the Taliban, technically (coin, c/terror and all that) or is it simply not agile enough to take on the cunning, innovative and highly agile enemy.
------------------------------------------
Todays reality is that Pakistan is in an utterly fragmented state, any way you look at it, paralyzed by complex, advanced multiple-crises.

Zardari is quoted in today's Dawn as saying, “If we save Pakistan, it will amount to saving the rights of poor people.”

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/16-antibaloch-clique-wants-my-removal-210-hs-05

Now i'm not imagining the President of Pakistan saying in public IF we save Pakistan. This is a REAILTY! And the IMPLOSION theorists might just be right. (Freudians might well argue that the President means IF he saves his you-know-what--i'd say that too, as in also.)

The significance of this statement around the cabinet mtg in Balochistan (should've been in Waziriistan!) is not lost on anyone as the US negotiates next steps to up the ante vs AQ/T. Maybe a balkanized Pakistan is best for all in the long-run (after all, Pak and Bangladesh have been better off without each other), I don't know....

With my respects to the people of Lakki.

Posted by TLA at January 2, 2010 3:02 PM ET:

Omar,

That is a very good portrayal of the forthcoming state of Paakistan. Thank you.

I hope that you will allow me to quote it on my own Web site's political pages.

Posted by Zeissa at January 2, 2010 6:16 PM ET:

Wonderful article (!), but it should corroborate more on the general acidic influence of most forms of Islam, not merely neo-Wahabism.

Posted by steve m. at January 2, 2010 11:57 PM ET:

wow! omar, are you from pakistan? if so, that is the most optimistic opinion i have heard from a pakistani yet! i can only hope so.

Posted by omar at January 3, 2010 1:34 PM ET:

My original note about the Lakki Marwat bombing led to a heated discussion on our email list. I wanted to synthesize this discussion into a coherent article about the direction Pakistan may take in the coming year. Unfortunately, it does not look like I will have the time to really do that properly right now, so I am going to just make a mishmash of the various comments and my comments on them and wait for more comments in order to put this together and make sense of it….

Omar

Let me disagree with you for a change (!), Omar.
I fear very much that you hope in vain.
This whole strategic depth nonsense is still very much the idiots' game plan.
Remember too, that manufacturing enemies out of thin air is what keeps the lucre flowing.
We are in very deep trouble, indeed.
Happy New Year, all,
Kamran
P.S. Someone who went to condole the death of the poor Peshawar Corps Commander´s poor son in the horrific Westridge mosque attack told me that Kayani was there too, and that there was no visible change in our Rommels' and Guderians' attitudes.

Dear Taqi,
Army interests in Pakistani state are the highest. I am told they have started worrying about Indian economic growth verus Pak sagging economy. They know if the gap keeps on widening they will be done. Therefore, they are not fighting jihadis only under US pressure: they have their own reasons. The need to accelerate the process will force them further. In history, it is not what a group desire to do but what history makes them do.
ME

I think Mr. Ejaz is correct in his statement, "I am told they have started worrying about Indian economic growth verus Pak sagging economy. They know if the gap keep on widening they will be done". However, I think he is wrong to think that this will force the army to accelerate the process of eliminating Jihadism. Quite the contrary, the Pak army will intensify efforts to destabilize India's economic growth. The many Jihadi strikes all across India in the past couple of years culminating in the Mumbai attack were designed to scare off foreign investment. My prediction is that ISI supported terrorists will step up their attacks on Indian economic centers and foreign nationals and investments.

The army will not relinquish the anti-Indian and 'strategic afghan depth' Jihadis in our life times unless all these Jihadis (Hafeez Saeed, Masood Azhar, Salahuddin etc) start directly killing the army/influential-elite personnel and their families. There is no indication that the Haqqanis, Saeeds, Azhars and Slahuddins have, as yet, turned against their benefactors and masters.
Chat Mohan

Taqi,

I hope you are wrong about the army being unable to change course. If they dont change course, the disaster in our region will be so huge, all this will look like child's play...I think they will change course. I think you underestimate how much of this is not because they are all conscious agents of some evil wahabi plan but because they are at about the same mental level as Imran Khan when it comes to history and sociology.
In the case of most members of the high command, its a combination of stupidity, delusions of being "strategic geniuses" and short term economic interests that propel their disastrous policies.... outside of a few true blooded jihadis like Hamid Gul and General Mahmud, its not ideological shrewdness and determination. ...Once the wind starts to blow in a different direction in civil society (and maybe with some help from viceroy Anne Patterson sahiba and her team of psychotherapists) they will discover their grand strategic plan was actually to destroy the jihadis all along....Oh well, it sounds weird even to me. but the alternative is too horrible, so I continue to hope.
Omar

Dear Omar,
As much as I would like to blame the Jihadist mindset and Army's collusion with it, it is actually the educated middle class that has failed to comprehend the magnitude of Wahhabi menace.

You have seen that the knee-jerk response to the Ashura bombing was a proposal to ban the Shiite processions. I contended at the time that it was not merely a sectarian attack and was in fact another front in the Wahhabi war on our (South Asian) way of life .

Hate to use the told-ya-so at such a grim juncture but I did identify sports stadiums as previous and potential targets for the Wahhabi jihadists.

Pak Army has not and will not change its course. They are not confused at all about their creation unleashing havoc on us. They are the mother of all evil.

They are the ones harboring Al-Qaida and Taliban.
Wali-ur-Rehman Mahsud's press conference inside the Army fort is just tip of this iceberg. Fazlullah,Muslim Khan and Haqqani are all hosted and protected by the Army.

Unless the Pakistani middle class is clear in identifying the Army and its Wahhabi allies , as the source of all evil and lean on it - through media,political/ civil pressure and if needed through international civil and military help - we will continue to see this destruction.

Best,

Taqi

ISI mouthpieces are appealing to “the people” to sweep away this rotten democracy and get ready for WAR against India and NATO.
OK, here is my question:
Is this a sign of increasing desperation in the ISI-Jihad crowd because they are losing control of the country?
I ask because obviously in the good old days, they did not have to ask the people to rise up and sweep away "crooked democracy" because they had already done the sweeping away. Today, Zardari and his unfortunately incompetent team and the Sharifs and MQM and ANP are all living IN Pakistan. They do not have control over the security establishment, but they are not totally powerless either. Is the glass half-full or half-empty?

Omar

I think every responsible and patriotic Pakistani who really loves the country would or should agree with your sensible conclusion that in the final analysis, when the die is cast, the only viable course is that the Army decisvely takes on the Taliban/Jihadists , America successfully stablises Afghanistan and we make long-needed and long-lasting peace with India. That seems to be the route that makes most sense, the ultimate ,inescapable and rational end-game for Pakistan's survival, progress and future. If the generals in their infinite wisdom think they have a better idea why don't they share with the govt or the people. I can't imagine any other outcome that would be more beneficial for the nation.

Having said that ,I'm not sure about this business of the need for the Army 'to switch sides', which assumes that the Army is currently on the Jihadis' side and is aligned with and controls them. I think this is a big assumption. Like I said before that though there's no doubt that the Jihadi mindset is firmly entrenched in a significant segment of the Army and many officers and even some generals might have sympathies with the Jihadis and Talibans, I dont think the GHQ has laid down an across-the-board formal, strategic policy to support the Jihadists/Talibans and to throw its lot with them. Of course this assumption is self-serving for the Army's image since it conveys the impression that our Army is so powerful and efficient that it easily eliminate the Taliban/Jihadists if it really wants to. Recents events have clearly shown that the Army is helpless and incapable of preventing the daily onslaughts of the massacre of Pkaistan people by the
 Taliban/Jihadists.

However, I'm not absolutely certain about this assertion since I too don't have access to any real time inside information. I can only surmise and speculate based on events and state of affairs. But I agree that the fact that so far the Army has failed to kill or capture any one of the Taliban or Jihadi leaders leads to suspicion that the Army might be in cohoots with the Taliban/Jihadis.

Or maybe the reality is that the Army simply lack the ability , capability and the willingness to defeat them decisively for whatever reasons. May be our people have an urealistic and exaggerated sense of Army's capabilities and accomplishments. Why can't the Army go after the country's enemy from within and finish them off to the last terrorist Sri-Lankan style? The answer to that is : Perhaps it can't. Really!

Tausif

I think it is the petro dollars. Along with the gulf sponsored affluence for many families in Pakistan the Wahabi culture comes as a package deal. They figure since the Wahabi's have it so good, they must be doing something right, so let us try to imitate them. And then you have sponsored people like Dr. Zakir Naik and Dr. Farhat Hashmi complementing the efforts.
While we are at it, my prediction is that Pakistan is going to succumb to the forces of religious right and we are going to have some sort of rightist set up real soon.
if you remember, you and I briefly discussed this the last time I was in Islamabad, and we decided that in the best case scenario it may turn out to be a non-Wahabi (but radicalized sufi type) setup. And as you pointed out that the recent hype surrounding Zaid Hamid in Pakistan might be geared toward this objective."

Every day I see more women turning to hijab, and more men growing beards, People have almost stopped saying good old Khuda Hafiz, for "Allah hafiz. Alhuda is opening new branches every now and then, recently my favourite bookstore that kept western classics and new releases, tuned into Quran and Hijab shop
If you live here in Pakistan you get a sense of Arabization and wahabiization growing all around you. Military can't be held resposible for that .something else has gotten hold of our psyche….

Brother Omar,
Assalam alaikum. The question is not what Saudis say or Group X or Y says. We are intelligent and educated people and we should make an effort to read and understand Quran and Sunnah and put into practice and strive to spread the message of true Islam to the best of our ability so we can be successful in the hereafter.
The big difference between you and me is that I believe in applying Islam in totality and that Islam is complete in itself and is totally different from all isms. You are a believer in secularism. All secularists are anti islamic. I am expressing my opinion frankly and of course you may disagree with it totally. May Allah guide all of us.

Dr Akhtar


A member asked: “where do the terrorists get their money”. In Pakistan, this question is usually a rhetorical question that is supposed to imply that India or “the Jews” are funding the terrorists against the holy Pakistani army.
My answer: Several sources: Number one is extortion from NATO contractors....every project in Afghanistan and every convoy through Pakistan has to pay off the local taliban to function. Second is donations from jihadi sympathizers, especially lucrative are the donations from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Some friends say Daood Ibrahim's network is fully functional as well and is a source of money for the jihadis. ISI can support them directly also, but probably does not need to....Finally, its possible that India or other interested parties may fund especially insane cells in the hope that they will mess up Pakistan and cause a civil war within the jihadi community...but I doubt if India can do too much in this area. First of all, they are not totally mad and know by now that supporting such people even if they attack Pakistan is not a good bet because eventually they will also attack India. You may say that RAW is probably no smarter than ISI and if ISI
 can be so blind to long term risks, why not RAW? Who knows? But given how many jihad supporters there are in Pakistan and the gulf, I dont think RAW has to waste their money....

Finally, late at night, I wrote a more pessimistic assessment.
A lot of friends are saying that GHQ and Jihad are inseparable. I dont have any inside information, but I keep hoping that the Generals some idea of their own interests even if they dont give a damn about Pathans who die while watching volleyball matches or shopping in Mina Bazaar.

Do the Generals imagine that their flats in London and ranches in Montana will remain safe and sound and they and their families will fly out before the shit hits the fan? Or, do they really believe (in the face of 30 years evidence to the contrary) that the ISI is so smart, it will get endless American dollars, Saudi Riyals and Chinese Yuans and manage to square the circle and retain the jihadis and strategic depth? that Afghanistan will again be our playground where we will test out the new wahabi paradise? and India will surrender Kashmir to us and everyone else will cheer our men of crisis who will win in war, win in peace, win economically and win politically, making fools of everyone else in the process? OR, do they really believe that they will be among the lucky 12000 who ride with Jesus when he lands in Khorasan while everybody else goes to hell?

That last statement has a story behind it. I was arguing on the internet with a friend who is a Pak army Jihadi sympathizer and he said "we will soon have MIRVed missiles and a thousand warheads (or something like that) and then we will really go for it". I said this is madness, any nuclear war will kill tens of millions, what are you talking about? he replied (I kid you not) that an authentic hadith states that only 12000 (or whatever) true muslims will ride with Jesus when he lands in Khorasan. We pray that we will be one of those 12000. Everyone else is going to either die or be on the losing side anyway! (btw, if anyone thinks this is a peculiarly Muslim delusion, they should read about various American evangelicals who are hoping world war breaks out soon so that Jesus can land in Jerusalem. Jesus, who seems to have been a peace loving man (or god) seems to trigger really warlike thoughts in some people)...

I look forward to informed comments..
To me, the only simulation that leads to any reasonable outcome is that the Pak army switches sides and takes on the jihadis, America stabilizes Afghanistan and India and Pakistan stick with peace rather than proxy wars and endless zero-sum destructive games. Everything else leads to disaster and I dont think our BFFs in China will take us with them to the South Chinese capitalist paradise of the future while the rest of South Asia is awestruck with admiration for the geniuses in GHQ...

Omar

Posted by Spooky at January 3, 2010 6:26 PM ET:

First of all, these people were hit BECAUSE they stood up. So it isn't like they were random targets and that they haven't ye been pushed over the edge: they reached that edge a long time ago, and are fighting for their own lives.

As for why the politicians can't do anything, they're too busy lining their own pockets. Plus the Taliban still have an allure due to their promises of land distribution. The ideals of the movement may be retrogressive, but the practical side of Taliban rule is, in a sad reflection on the Pakistani government, better than is being offered to the people, who continue to live under feudalism.

Posted by T Ruth at January 3, 2010 9:16 PM ET:

Omar,

Before your army can rise up and take on anything, you and your people are going to have to rise up and take on your army--on the streets. I don't mean street battles. I mean people power.....revolution.

Pakistan, RISE UP OR BREAK UP!

YOUR ARMY HAS BEEN, STILL IS, PART OF THE PROBLEM. The only way they can be part of the solution is if you DICTATE to them. Else continue to be mis-lead.

The Soviet army and the KGB could not save the mighty Soviet Union.

The Pak army is a mighty weak force, physically (pls don't take my word for it--take a clean sheet of paper and write down their achievements--see it for yourself). But they are under your skin, in your psyche...

The Americans cannot dictate to the Pak army, as they have discovered. Only you can.

Else, the plug will be pulled on Balochistan.... somehow....then the reast of the dominos will fall.

Sir, whether the glass is half full or half empty is the wrong question and playing with words.

The real question is IS THE GLASS CRACKED?

Pakistan has already fallen. CAN ALL OF KIYANI'S HORSES AND ALL OF HIS MEN PUT PAKISTAN TOGETHER AGAIN?

IF, and only IF you force them to break with the past. Try it....what have you to lose?

Posted by T Ruth at January 4, 2010 10:51 AM ET:

Omar,

I re-read your your rather long post. The content is as good as it is long. Further, it more than makes up for the lack of clear, rational and, most of all, REALISTIC, Pakistani contributions here in the past.

Thank you and your friends for sharing candidly. Look forward to further dialogue...

Khuda Hafiz

Posted by Maverick at January 5, 2010 7:56 AM ET:

Dear Omar,

I agree with your analysis that the Pakistan Army leadership is caught in a bind - they want to use the Jihadis for their purposes but do not want the Jihadis to become a problem for them. This is why there has been very little progress in containing extremism in Pakistan. I also find the claims made by various Pakistanis - that the Army via the ISI is fomenting a lot of this conflict to keep its hold on society - somewhat credible. When a high security zone is repeatedly breached, it becomes hard to reach any other conclusion.

Not long after Sept 11, Stephen Cohen predicted that a Jihadi takeover of Pakistan was impossible because if the Jihadis killed the Pakistan Army leadership - then the Army as a whole would launch an extermination campaign against them. Stephen Cohen theorized that the Jihadis were aware of this tendency of the Army and so they would stay clear of attacking the brass. There was some talk of an analogy between the Pakistan Army and the Wehrmacht and the ISI/Army of Islam and the SS that was also touted for a while. The idea here was that the SS did all sorts of things, but ultimately the Wehrmacht called the shots. The analogy never really went anywhere.

Mind you all this was before the helicopter carrying the 7 Division top brass was shot down and before Gen. Baig was murdered in broad daylight in Rawalpindi. The murders of Gen. Alvi and the attacks in Westridge clearly suggest that the Jihadis are no longer feeling particularly restrained. Nowadays in places like Delhi there is open talk of an Jihadi underworld which appears to have Pakistan in a death grip.

Do you feel Steve was right in saying that the PA will turn enmasse against the Jihadis if the leadership is attacked and killed?

Most Indians I know find this idea unsustainable. From all the reports I have seen from various Pakistani publications, the lower ranks have lost interest in fighting the Jihadis or at least they all acknowledge that the Army is fighting on shaky ground. I don't think Pakistan works the way Steve Cohen wants it to so this is not the way it will play out.

What do you think - I feel your perspective is much more nuanced than my own. What in your opinion is a turning point for the Army - when will they realize that these opportunistic alliances with the Jihadis do more harm than good?

Maverick
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