[Reader-list] on the glaciers controversy

[Nagraj Adve]

Friends,
Copied below is a statement from Delhi Platform on the recent controversy on
Himalayan glaciers. We believe that the debate, though important, has missed
key issues. Most of all, it has ignored the impacts on and perceptions of
people who live in the vicinity of glaciers and whose daily lives are
dependent on them.
Kindly also forward the statement to other organizations/ email lists/ Press
people.
In solidarity,
Nagraj Adve
for Delhi Platform



*DELHI** PLATFORM*

* *

*Statement on the Himalayan Glaciers controversy*



29 January 2010



A huge controversy has been generated in recent days over the much quoted
lines in the IPCC’s 2007 report: “Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding
faster than in any part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the
likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very
high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate” (*Working Group 2*,
page 493). We do need to question how a statement of such magnitude, without
peer review, made its way into the IPCC report. That it was discovered,
externally, more than two years later raises concerns about both the mindset
and the weakness of the processes of the IPCC in checking and correcting
information they collate, information that is so vital in the global debate.
However, to question the credibility of the science of the global warming,
supported as it is by a wealth of empirical evidence, or to question IPCC’s
work, as is happening in some quarters, is gross exaggeration and sometimes
driven by dubious and malafide intentions.



More importantly, *the ongoing debate ignores four key issues*:

*one*, that glacial melting, happening extensively in many regions and
altitudes of the Himalayas, is already impacting people’s lives in the
Indian Himalayan states;

*two*, science ignores people’s own perceptions of their reality and their
context;

*three*, the critics have not properly placed the issue in the overall
context and fragility of glaciers globally; and

*four*, that the situation is going to unavoidably worsen, hence deepening
an unfolding crisis of access to water.



Since the Earth’s average warming gets amplified into much higher levels of
warming in the mid-level Himalayas and at higher altitudes, the impacts
there are already huge and varied. At a public hearing on ‘Impacts of
Climate Change on the Himalayan Region’, organized by Oxfam India in late
2009, people from different Himalayan communities presented testimonies of
extensive melting, receding and disappearance of small glaciers in parts of
Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand based on their lived
experience over the years. One professional guide who has traversed high
altitudes for many years talked of the disappearance of numerous small
glaciers over the last 20 years in J&K. Small glaciers, said another
speaker, have disappeared from the Sarva Valley. Sigri and Chhotadhara
glacier, both in Himachal, are receding rapidly. The Dhani Nara glacier,
also in Himachal Pradesh, does not exist any more. Numerous presenters
talked of lessening and irregular snowfall in recent years. This has obvious
impacts on glacial mass and melting in the medium term. Women spoke of how
water sources have dried up, already causing distress in their daily lives,
impacting drinking water access and water supply for agriculture.



People’s observations of their lived reality over time and of the impacts of
global warming on their lives need to be given greater space and credence
than is being done at the moment by formal science. This is particularly
relevant in the area of glacial melting in the Himalayas given that many
authorities, including the minister for environment and forests Jairam
Ramesh, have acknowledged that Himalayan glaciers have been little studied.
Why has the Himalayan glaciers issue received such inadequate attention
until now? Of the thousands of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, reliable
baseline data exists for relatively few. In the absence of baseline data, it
would be crucial to tap the lived experience of people who have lived in the
vicinity of glaciers for decades.



Focusing on the erroneous date 2035 alone glosses over the already
precarious state of glaciers worldwide, including in many parts of the
Himalayas. A study by the World Glacier Monitoring Service in 2005 of 442
glaciers stated that 90% of them were receding. The much respected
glaciologist Lonnie Thompson has said recently that of the 800 Himalayan
glaciers being monitored, 95% are receding (*Guardian*, 20 January 2010).
That tropical glaciers are receding worldwide are indicative of the fate of
subtropical Himalayan glaciers. Ren, Jiawen, et al state: “Many glaciers on
the South slope of the central Himalaya have been in retreat, and recently
their retreat rate has accelerated … due to reduced precipitation and warmer
temperatures” (*Annals of Glaciology*, vol. 43, no. 1, Sept 2006). Anil
Kulkarni, et al’s oft-quoted study of 466 glaciers in the Baspa, Parbati and
Chenab basins indicates greater fragmentation of glaciers, and reduction in
glacial area by 21% since the mid-20th century (*Current Science*, vol. 92,
no. 1, 10 Jan 2007). A study of mass balance of glaciers, of “all published
Himalayan-Karakoram measurements” shows that overall “they are more negative
after 1995”. Though increase in mass loss rate “need not be true of every
part of the region … the mass loss rate is consistent with the global
average (Jeffrey Kargel, et al, ‘Satellite-era Glacier Changes in High
Asia’, AGU conference, December 2009). Dobhal and Mehta’s study of the
Dokriani glacier in the Bhagirathi basin says that “The present snout … is
continuously retreating, *like other glaciers of the Himalaya*” (*Himalayan
Geology*, n.d.).



Glaciers have also been thinning at high altitudes. Lonnie Thompson, in an
interview to *Nature* said: “Back in 2006, we drilled three cores in the
southwestern Himalayas. At 6,050 metres, where these glaciers reach their
highest elevation, we found that … the glaciers are being decapitated. Not
only are they retreating up the mountain slopes, but they are thinning from
the top down” (*Nature Reports Climate Change*, 9 July 2009).



This precarious state of glaciers is going to unavoidably worsen because of
further global warming in the pipeline, since there is a 25-30 year lag
between emissions and warming. As it is, the drying of water sources is
being exacerbated by indiscriminate damming of rivers and creation of
run-of-the-river projects in the Himalayan states, in the face of
considerable resistance from people across these states. All of this is
going to worsen the water crisis unfolding for the poor, particularly poor
women, in the Himalayas. Any debate on the Himalayan glaciers needs to keep
them at its centre.



Rather than view glaciers collectively, it would be more appropriate to view
them in a disaggregated way, since impacts on specific glaciers affect
specific communities and people dependent on them. Not only is there a
compelling need to carry out a comprehensive study of Himalayan glaciers in
cooperation with other nations who are part of this rich ecosystem, the
process also needs to have the people as a vital and engaged constituent.
And the resultant information needs to be in the public domain.



Melting glaciers and the more irregular rainfall patterns in recent years
makes the creation of appropriate small and large water harvesting
structures absolutely urgent. In which both the government and local
organizations have a crucial role to play. The National Rural Employment
Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) can be usefully deployed towards this end, but this
requires greater political will by local elites and the administration at
different levels than they have displayed thus far. There is clearly an
urgent need to anticipate and prepare for acute water stress in the
Himalayan region and beyond.



----------------------------------------------------



If you have any queries, please contact:

*Email*: delhiplatform at gmail.com

*Mobile*: 9910476553, 9213763756