[Reader-list] To spite Zardari, Pakistan military foiled peace talks
Syed ali shah Beelani
syedbeelani at yahoo.com
Mon Jul 19 11:49:48 IST 2010
When the prime ministers of India and Pakistan met in Thimpu in early May,
Yousuf Raza Gilani indicated he had the full support of Pakistan’s military to
resume the dialogue with India. But by the time the foreign ministers of the two
countries met in mid-July, the men in khaki had become opposed to any dialogue.
Three developments, say sources in both countries, led them to change their
related stories
* Qureshi climbdown: Never said Krishna got directions
* Big Picture | Diplomacy by dirty deedsminds. The first was the political
resurgence of President Asif Ali Zardari. The Pakistan military has sought to
marginalise him at the expense of Gilani and their favourite politician,
ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
But Zardari’s recent successes in working out long-standing disputes between the
Centre and the provinces over water and finance, and the holding of genuine
elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, have resurrected his standing at the popular
level.
Second was David Coleman Headley’s testimony. The transcript handed over by Home
Minister P Chidambaram in late June was damning in how much it showed the
military’s Inter-Services Intelligence’s direct link to the Mumbai 26/11 attack.
This infuriated the Pakistani military, not least because it potentially put
them at a disadvantage in their own struggle with Zardari.
Third was the attack by the Punjabi Taliban on the Data Durbar shrine in Lahore
on July 1. Among the holiest of Barelvi Muslim shrines in Pakistan, it put the
military in a dilemma. The militant groups behind the blast were also political
allies of Sharif.
But the outcry among the Barelvis has been so strong that it is reported in
Pakistan that the military has ordered action to be taken against lower level
Punjabi Taliban cadre.
By the time Foreign Minister SM Krishna arrived in Islamabad, the military’s
view about the dialogue with India had shifted from support to strong
reservations.
One reason, say sources in Pakistan, was their feeling that a successful
dialogue with India would only add another feather to Zardari’s cap. India’s
forceful play of the Headley card tipped the scales decisively against dialogue.
The ISI link was bad enough, but India’s insistence on some sort of action
against the Lashkar e Tayyeba over 26/11 was a red flag.
At a time when the military was moving to take action against the Punjabi
Taliban, it was impossible for it to concede even rhetorical moves against
Lashkar, the largest Punjabi militant group. The Pakistani army and broader
establishment is not interested in making headway with India at this point, say
sources in Pakistan.
Foreign Minister SM Qureshi’s comment on Sunday that he would visit India only
for “meaningful, result-oriented talks” and not for a “leisure trip” — knowing
well that progress in India-Pakistan dialogue can only be slow and incremental —
further endorses this view.
The military’s position is that it would prefer to wait until Sharif rules in
Islamabad before taking up India again.
The Indian Foreign Ministry’s expectations had been based on Gilani’s Thimpu
statements and his seeming consolidation of power following the passage of the
18th constitutional amendment.
The impact of Zardari’s political resurrection and the shrine attack may have
been missed.
New Delhi now has a clearer understanding that the military remains directly and
forcefully involved in running the show in Islamabad, admit officials,
especially when it comes to relations with India.
The military’s political games at home, however, mean dialogue will not be high
on its priority list and make medium-term prospects for the Indo-Pakistan peace
process bleak.
More information about the reader-list
mailing list