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Climate change: Weather of Olympian extremes
Extremes are to be expected ... what should trouble politicians is the
apparently inexorable increase in severity and frequency

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      - Editorial <http://www.theguardian.com/profile/editorial>
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      - The Guardian <http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian>, Sunday 9
      February 2014 22.01 GMT
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(109)<http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/09/leader-climate-change-weather-olympian-extremes#start-of-comments>

In the Climate Games, a number of contenders have already achieved personal
bests. California is in the deepest
drought<http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/07feb_drought/>
for
more than a century. The United
States<http://www.theguardian.com/world/usa> began
the year with a record fall in the mercury, blizzard conditions in the
north-east and a world-class anomalyin the state of
Michigan<http://newswise.com/articles/upper-michigan-was-coldest-spot-on-the-globe-in-january2>,
where, to the joy of headline writers, a small town called Hell froze
over<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25648513>
.

Australia <http://www.theguardian.com/world/australia> in 2013 had its
hottest year ever - and its hottest
summer<http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/03/australias-hottest-year-recorded-in-2013>
-
and conditions this January were near record levels too. Oslo recorded its
warmest Christmas: life-threatening forest fires broke out in the Norwegian
Arctic<http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/arctic-wildfires-in-winter-norway-experiences-freakish-historic-wildfire-in-january/>
.

England experienced its heaviest winter
rainfall<http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/feb/01/january-uk-wettest-winter-month-250-years>
and
its most damaging floods in 248 years. In north-eastern
Greenland<http://www.theguardian.com/world/greenland>,
January temperatures were anomalously high: on average 6.24C up on normal
for the month.

Researchers last month also claimed a record for glacial acceleration:
Jakobshavn Isbrae, a massive river of ice that runs from the Greenland
icecap to one of the country's Atlantic ocean fjords, has accelerated
fourfold<http://www.egu.eu/news/100/greenlands-fastest-glacier-reaches-record-speeds/>
since
1997, and its summer rate of flow is an unprecedented 46 metres a day.

In this season of extremes the Earth's atmosphere during January was,
according to US scientists, warmer than normal.

Extremes are to be expected: any average is the sum of accumulated
extremes. What should trouble the politicians is the apparent, and
apparently inexorable, increase in the severity and the frequency of
extremes.

Even before 1988, when global warming first became an item on the
international agenda, climate scientists had begun to warn that, were
average temperatures to rise with greenhouse gas levels, then extremes
would become more damaging, more frequent, or both.

Since then, the warnings have multiplied, and intensive and sustained
research by scientists in Britain, Europe, China, Australia and the US has
told the same story: if there are no steps to reduce greenhouse emissions,
then average global temperatures will continue to rise, and extremes of
heat and cold, of evaporation and precipitation, will continue. And yet
each extreme triggers new energy demand.

Sea defences, river dredging and the pumping of water from flooded farmland
all consume expensive energy. The alternative is catastrophic loss; by
2100, according to a European study this month, without adaptation, storm
surge damage to coastal cities could total $100 trillion a
year<https://www.southampton.ac.uk/engineering/news/2014/02/05_climate_change_threatens_to_cause_trillions_in_damage.page>
.

In a blizzard, cities and homesteads have no choice but to turn up the
thermostat. As summer temperatures soar, so will the demand for air
conditioning: the US today uses about as much electricity to cool its
offices, malls and homes as it did in the 1950s to supply the needs of the
whole nation for all purposes.

In a cycle of positive feedback, demand for fossil fuels will continue to
grow, and temperatures will continue to rise.

The Arctic is melting: by 2100, under a business-as-usual scenario, Arctic
average temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 11C. Glaciers in the
northern hemisphere are, in most cases, in retreat. Since ice - which
reflects sunlight back into space - is part of the planet's insulation
system, that too will feed back into rising temperatures.

With each 1C rise, the capacity of the atmosphere to carry water vapour
also increases, so flood, drought and catastrophic windstorm are likely to
become either more frequent, more extreme, or both.

More investment in fossil fuel energy seems to promise ever-greater
problems.

When they stock fields or sow crops, farmers take a bet that conditions
will be normal: when they are not, farmers lose, and so do consumers.Food
security is at risk<http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/08/severe-floods-threaten-food-security-climate-change>,
and not just because of flooding on the Somerset Levels.

Energy supply too, will become increasingly precarious, both at the
strategic and the immediate level: it is a fair bet that blackouts will
become more frequent, more widespread and more prolonged.

In the downhill race towards climate
change<http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-change>,
it will also be increasingly difficult for would-be host nations to be sure
of snow and ice for future Winter Olympics. But by then, that will be the
least of the world's problems.