[Reader-list] Fwd: [SV_RFID] Top 10 Tech trends in India for 2006

[Rob van Kranenburg]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Karun Bir Singh Sandha <karunbirsingh at gmail.com>
> Date: January 14, 2006 8:44:56 AM GMT+01:00
> To: rfid <sv_rfid at yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [SV_RFID] Top 10 Tech trends in India for 2006
> Reply-To: SV_RFID at yahoogroups.com
>
> Link: http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jan/11spec.htm
>
>
>
>
>
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> Top 10 tech trends for India
>
> Shobhana Subramanian, Priyanka Joshi and Leslie D'Monte | January  
> 11, 2006
>
> Check out the happening infotech, communications and entertainment  
> trends of 2006.
>
> 1. Blu-Ray of hope
>
> Remember the 1.44 MB humble floppy? Now we only talk about CDs (can  
> store around 650 MB) and DVDs (anywhere from 4.7 GB to 17 GB).  
> However, with the announcement of Pioneer's Blu-ray or Blu-disc  
> format, the game is changing.
>
> Blu-ray is the next generation large capacity optical disc video  
> recording format -- enables recording, rewriting and play back of  
> up to 27 gigabytes (GB) of data on a single side and can transfer  
> date at 36 Mbps (the CD transfers data at around 150 Kbps while  
> DVDs do the same at around 11 Mbps).
>
> The High Density Digital Versatile Disc (HD-DVD) is also in the  
> news. However, HD-DVDs can store up to 15 GB on a single layer.  
> While HD-DVD is promoted by Toshiba, NEC, Sanyo and Microsoft and  
> backed by four major film studios, Blu-ray is backed by Japanese  
> consumer electronics giant Sony.
>
> At CES 2006, Sony already announced plans for its first high- 
> definition Blu-ray DVD players and recorders. High-definition  
> technology from Toshiba called HD DVD will also be available to  
> consumers in March 2006.
>
> HD-DVD is similar to DVD, hence analysts consider it cheaper for  
> manufacturers to switch production lines. On the other hand, Blu- 
> ray will need whole new equipment setups. Both formats are yet to  
> agree on a standard, which is a problem.
>
> Market monitor SMD sees Blu-Ray and HD DVD discs (Moser Baer is  
> already working on them) really kicking in only from 2007 onwards  
> in India. For now, CDs and DVDs are here to stay -- at least till  
> 2010.
>
> And as these two formats battle each other, the first holographic  
> storage systems, capable of storing up to 300 GB on a single disc  
> (over six times more content than Blu-ray and HD-DVD), will  
> reportedly go on sale towards the end of 2006.
>
> 2. Digital ticket
>
> After the convenience of booking cinema tickets online, comes the  
> ease of buying tickets on your cellphone. And also paying for it  
> through the phone. Bangalore-based Jigharak is believed to be  
> working on the software application. Not only this, you will be  
> able to book tickets using your personal digital assistant (PDA) or  
> any hand held.
>
> Vijay Basrur of Inox Leisure says it is kicking-off one such  
> initiative this February, either in Bangalore or Pune. Shringar  
> Cinemas also has plans to start hawking tickets through PDAs in the  
> next couple of months at its multiplex in Andheri, says Arshad  
> Kazi, technology head.
>
> Moreover, with the setting up of self-collection kiosks, buying  
> tickets will become as simple as withdrawing cash from an ATM.  
> Costing around Rs 1 lakh each, they will be installed in metros  
> soon. PVR Cinemas has already installed one in Bangalore.
>
> As for the theatre screens, D-Cinema (the high-end of digital  
> cinema is still about five years away thanks to high costs) 2006  
> could see some upgrades of E-Cinema.
>
> Currently, around 150 theatres in India are digitised which means  
> that unlike a celluloid print, there are servers hooked on to  
> projectors that beam the pixels (read picture) onto a screen. But  
> only two screens of Satyam Cinema in Chennai have real D-Cinema.
>
> Kazi opines that it is a volume game -- at least 800-1,000 screens  
> are needed for cinema operators to be able to afford the D-Cinema  
> projectors and servers. The price of a D-Cinema projector is four  
> times that of an E-Cinema projector, which currently costs about Rs  
> 15-20 lakh (Rs 1.5-2 million).
>
> 3. Games people play
>
> The global mobile games' business is pegged at $ 2.2 billion, with  
> India accounting for around $100 million of the overall pie.  
> Nasscom states this market could well touch $500 million in exports  
> alone by 2010.
>
> And thanks to the next generation of cell phones with enhanced  
> graphical, sound and data capabilities, mobile gaming is poised as  
> the next big thing for the Indian gaming scenario.
>
> However, a console/PC genre, awaiting its day, in India is the  
> massively multimedia online role playing game (MMORPG). Indeed,  
> even the introduction of MMORPGs in the mobile market should bring  
> in a whole new audience.
>
> Due to the stratified nature of online gamers, there is little  
> crossover between those who play first-person shooter (FPS) games  
> and those who play MMORPGs, states a recent Juniper report.
>
> While versions of these games are currently available on mobiles --  
> EverQuest, for example, which was introduced on the BREW platform  
> in 2003 -- they do not permit multiplayer play. Juniper expects  
> subscriptions to be the key source of revenues for such games.
>
> In the console/PC market, MMORPGs such as Dark Age of Camelot,  
> EverQuest and Star Wars Galaxies typically retail at around $40  
> with monthly subscription costs of nearly $15 per month. So, as the  
> MMORPG community increases, gaming revenue should increase.
>
> 4. Movies on Demand
>
> With Tata Sky planning to launch Direct to Home (DTH) services in  
> May-June this year, consumers will have much more choice. Not to  
> mention better picture and sound quality, thanks to set-top boxes.
>
> Vikram Kaushik, CEO, Tata Sky, says his company will leverage the  
> expertise of BSkyB and Foxtel and customise the programmes to suit  
> local needs.
>
> Gaming channels too are likely to become a reality. We should also  
> see the launch of digital video recorders this year which can  
> record 100 hours of programing, says Sunil Khanna, CEO, Dish TV. So  
> you can always record your favourite programmes -- six channels at  
> a time -- and watch them at your leisure.
>
> Last month, DishTV kicked-off with a Movie-on-Demand Service for  
> Hindi films and this will be followed up with a service for English  
> films in March. India might also see High Definition TV (HDTV)  
> before 2006 is over. Khanna notes that HD-compatible television  
> sets are already here but broadcasters need to get their act together.
>
> Are customers biting? Yes, the momentum's been building up in the  
> last six months or so say broadcasters. Khanna believes that by  
> March 7, Dish TV would have 2.5 milion subscribers. A set top box  
> which earlier cost Rs 6,000 now comes for Rs 4,000. And  
> subscriptions are affordable, starting from Rs 60 and going upto Rs  
> 300.
>
> And do you want to replay Sachin's square cut repeatedly? Thanks to  
> interactive TV, this too will be possible in 2006.
>
> 5. Plug into the IP Phone
>
> While Internet Protocol telephony is known in India -- many of us  
> having used it on the sly for the last four years -- what is little  
> known is that Indian enterprises have bought over 100,000 IP phones  
> in the last couple of years.
>
> IP phones transmit voice using data packets (similar to the way the  
> Internet routes data) instead of circuit-switched (the way your  
> vanilla telephone operates) connections over voice-only networks.  
> Since the calls are routed through the Net (these phones have an  
> ethernet phone in which your phone (copper) cable can be inserted),  
> all the user pays for is the IP phone software and the Internet  
> connection.
>
> While it took Cisco three years to sell its first million IP phone,  
> it took just four months to sell the sixth million (total global  
> sales till date). In a few year's time, one out of two phones in  
> India could be an IP phone, opines Ranajoy Punja, VP (Marketing),  
> Cisco. Frost & Sullivan estimates the Indian IP telephony market in  
> India to be around $ 54 million.
>
> IP phone prices have, on an average, dropped from $800-$900 four  
> years ago to around $100 today. The voice quality too has improved.  
> However, since the IP phone uses the Internet route, there are  
> concerns over security, though companies are taking care to ensure  
> that the network is adequately protected and all messages are  
> scrambled. IP phones (unlike the vanilla phones) can be customised.  
> And this trend is expected to catch on further in 2006.
>
> 6. Robots, robots everywhere
>
> Aibo has a cult following in the United States and Japan. Of  
> course, American AIBO buyers tend to be computer geeks who want to  
> hack the robotic dog's programming. Japanese consumers, on the  
> other hand, treat this Sony robot as a pet.
>
> Robots in the US have already taken over domestic tasks like lawn- 
> mowing, vacuum cleaning (the Roomba by iRobot) and window cleaning.  
> iRobot says it has sold hundreds of thousands of units of the  
> Roomba -- a self-guided, self-propelled vacuum cleaner that sells  
> for around $200 -- in just one year.
>
> A United Nations report on Robotics expects the sales of such  
> robots to reach 4.5 million units with an estimated value of $3  
> billion. The market for entertainment and leisure robots, including  
> toy robots, is tipped to touch 2.5 million units. The sales value  
> is estimated at over $4.4 billion.
>
> With labour cheap in India, will domestic robots become popular?  
> Not likely in the coming years. However, robots have other uses in  
> our country. Many Indian auto, auto-ancillary majors and machine  
> tool players are using robots to meet global precision standards.  
> Robots have also been used in cardiac surgeries.
>
> And now a Pune-based urologist has taken the lead for using this  
> technique to treat prostate cancer and other urological disorders,  
> like opening up narrow fallopian tubes in women. A Kolhapur-based  
> general surgeon, Suresh Deshpande, along with a young IT engineer,  
> Vikrant Yadav, has also developed a laparoscopic robotic arm fitted  
> with a camera to perform orthopaedic surgeries.
>
> 7. Tag on to RFID
>
> Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology is no longer only  
> about the US and Wal-Mart. Pune University's Jayakar library uses  
> RFID tags on its books as well as library cards; the Chitale Dairy  
> at Bhiwladi in Maharashtra's Sangli district has installed RFID to  
> monitor the feeding patterns of cattle and bisons; Pantaloon Retail  
> India and Shopper's Stop have RFID tags in their factories; more  
> than 45 colleges in Pune have introduced student identity RFID  
> cards that allow students access to hostels and monitor their  
> classroom attendance; and ITC uses RFID to track what goes into the  
> manufacturing of its cigarettes.
>
> These are but a few cases in point. Indian suppliers to retail  
> majors such as Wal-Mart, Metro, Target and Tesco have already been  
> issued directives to replace barcodes with RFID tags.
>
> While this may lower margins of these suppliers, it will  
> unwittingly create a demand for RFID tags in India. The estimated  
> market size of this industry in India is anywher between Rs 125-150  
> crore (Rs 1.25-1.50 billion) and is said to be growing at 30 per  
> cent per annum.
>
> The current cost of tags is anywhere from Rs 5 to Rs 30, considered  
> to be prohibitive when tagging hundreds of products. The rates are  
> bound to decrease this year. Worldwide RFID spending is expected to  
> surpass $3 billion in 2010, predicts Gartner. A Research and  
> Markets report pegs the figure at $6 billion by 2010.
>
> RFID is not a bar code replacement, note analysts. While bar codes  
> are better at collecting data in structured places like warehouses  
> (likely to continue for the next five to seven years), RFID tags  
> are expected to be used for data collection in largely chaotic or  
> unstructured business processes like retail environments to hospitals.
>
> 8. The new intelligent vehicle
>
> Telematics, integrated use of telecommunications and informatics,  
> is catching up in the transportation sector. Global Positioning  
> System (GPS) is being used in KSRTC buses (pilot project) in  
> Bangalore. Many Indian logistics companies too are using GPS to  
> track vehicle movements and errant drivers.
>
> The recently-introduced Tata Novus range of commercial vehicles  
> feature the 'TRAK i t' Vehicle Locater -- a GPS system for vehicle  
> tracking; 'TRAK i t' Vehicle Data Recorder -- for critical vehicle  
> and driver performance recording; and electrical systems that  
> ensure 'vehicle start' in neutral gear, as an enhanced safety feature.
>
> Our cars too are becoming smarter. For instance, the REVA-NXG  
> introduced this April as a "concept car" in Monaco, was fitted with  
> a `wireless tablet' -- an embedded computer based on Mobilius  
> having a touch screen display which shows all essential information  
> about the car like speed and mileage. It also doubles up as a GPS  
> navigation system. Internet is accessible via GPRS. It also has a  
> MP3 player.
>
> Vehicle telematics systems are also increasingly being used to  
> provide remote diagnostics; a vehicle's in-built systems will  
> identify a mechanical or electronic problem, and the telematics  
> package will automatically make this information known to the  
> vehicle manufacturer and service organisation. Other forthcoming  
> applications include on-demand navigation, audio and audio-visual  
> entertainment content.
>
> 9. Where the Podcast's headed
>
> If you have an iPod, you would know what podcasting is. For the  
> uninitiated, imagine a desktop aggregator where you subscribe to a  
> set of feeds. Podcasting works similarly, except that instead of  
> reading, you listen to the content on an iPod.
>
> Juice was the first major podcasting software (downloads podcast  
> media file like oggs/MP3) and is still the most popular podcast  
> aggregator.
>
> With smartphones getting cheaper by the day and 3G networks  
> becoming commonplace (well at least in developed nations), 2006  
> will see the growth in 'mobilecasting', predict tech pundits.
>
> All we need now is empower people with video phones, 3G mobile  
> telephony, and a Flickr-like tool to upload audio and video to RSS- 
> enabled websites. This is not mobile blogging or podcasting now --  
> we're talking about a social revolution and that's mobcasting.
>
> Mobilecast (a software to convert podcasts to Adaptive Multi Rate  
> (AMR) converter for mobile phones) and mobilecasting have become  
> the 'One' when it comes to downloading and listening to podcasts on  
> mobile phones. All you need to do is install and configure  
> Mobilecast on the iPod.
>
> Thereon, it will be run after each podcast downloads, splitting the  
> podcast into segments of 10-minute AMR audio files for the mobile  
> phone. Podcasters have now begun brainstorming on how to create  
> podcasts specifically for mobile phones.
>
> 10. Wi-Fi on steroids
>
> Worldwide Interoperability of Microwave Access or WiMAX is the new  
> kid on the block. Taking over from Wi-Fi or the 802.11 b  
> technology, WiMAX (802.16 a) promises to bring bandwidth to the  
> masses at higher speeds this year.
>
> It broadcasts its signal over many more channels than WiFi, and  
> those channels are less cluttered. Its signals face less  
> interference, thus helping them travel as far as 30 miles. Besides,  
> WIMAX provides metropolitan area network connectivity at speeds of  
> up to 75 Mbps (compare that to Wi-Fi's 11 Mbps).
>
> WIMAX covers wider metropolitan or rural areas. It is meant to  
> solve the last-mile problem. In India, where the telecom  
> infrastructure is poor and last-mile connections are typically  
> through copper cable, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) and fibre  
> optic, installation costs are high as it requires ripping up  
> streets to lay cables. The ability to provide these connections  
> wirelessly, without laying wire or cable in the ground, greatly  
> lowers the cost of providing these services.
>
> Intel and BSNL have already introduced Hot Spots (wherein you can  
> connect your Wi Fi-enabled (or Centrino) laptop to wireless network  
> and logon to the Net instantly). Satyam Infoway is on the way to  
> adopt WIMAX. Intel (which also plans to introduce a WiMAX computer  
> chip) is said to be working with Reliance on a pre-standard WIMAX  
> pilot project. It is also reportedly working with Bharti and Navini  
> Networks, and is in talks with BSNL for similar pilot projects.
>
> Meanwhile, the Indian government is expected to introduce 3G by  
> 2006. Intel and BSNL have already introduced Hot Spots (wherein you  
> can connect your Wi Fi-enabled (or Centrino) laptop to wireless  
> network and logon to the Net instantly). 3G will help in enhancing  
> India's competitiveness in the ITES / BPO segment.
>
> All this will entail an increase in India's optical fiber network  
> which currently stands at 670,000 km (all providers including BSNL).
>
>
>
> -- 
> Karun Bir Singh Sandha,
> (Marketing-Systems),
> Symbiosis Institute of Management Studies,
> Range Hills Road,
> Kirkee, Pune, India - 411020
> Ph.(91)9823560618
>
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