[Reader-list] Tariq Ali on Musharraf's Exit

[Shambhu Rahmat]

Musharraf will be gone in days

The Pakistani president is likely to quit soon. But don't expect
democracy to rush in: the military's habits die hard

Tariq Ali

Guardian

Thursday August 14 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/14/pakistan.usa



There is never a dull moment in Pakistan. As the country moved from a
moth-eaten dictatorship to a moth-eaten democracy the celebrations
were muted. Many citizens wondered whether the change represented a
forward movement.



Five months later, the moral climate has deteriorated still further.
All the ideals embraced by the hopeful youth and the poor of the
country – political morality, legality, civic virtue, food subsidies,
freedom and equality of opportunity – once again lie at their feet,
broken and scattered. The widower Bhutto and his men are extremely
unpopular. The worm-eaten tongues of chameleon politicians and
resurrected civil servants are on daily display. Removing Musharraf,
who is even more unpopular, might win the politicians badly-needed
popular support, but not for long.



As the country celebrated its 61st birthday today, its official
president, ex-General Pervez Musharraf, was not allowed to take the
salute at the official parade marking the event, while state
television discussed plans to impeach him. Within a few days at most,
Musharraf will resign and leave the country. Pakistan's venal
politicians decided to move against him after the army chief, Ashfaq
Kayani, let it be known that there would be no military action to
defend his former boss.



Washington followed suit. In Kayani they have a professional and loyal
military leader, who they imagine will do their bidding. Earlier John
Negroponte had wanted to retain Musharraf as long as Bush was in
office, but they decided to let him go. Anne Patterson, the US
ambassador, and a few British diplomats working under her, tried to
negotiate a deal on behalf of Musharraf, but the politicians were no
longer prepared to play ball. They insisted that he must leave the
country. Sanctuaries in Manhattan, Texas and the Turkish island of
Büyükada are being actively considered. The general would prefer a
large estate in Pakistan, preferably near a golf course, but security
considerations alone would make that unfeasible. There were three
attempts on his life when he was in power and protecting him after he
goes would require an expensive security presence. Had Musharraf
departed peacefully when his constitutional term expired in November
2007 he would have won some respect. Instead he imposed a state of
emergency and sacked the chief justice of the supreme court who was
hearing a petition challenging Musharraf's position.



Now he is going in disgrace, abandoned by most of his cronies who
accumulated land and money during his term and are now moving towards
the new powerbrokers. Amidst the hullabaloo there was one hugely
diverting moment involving pots and kettles. Two days ago, Asif
Zardari, the caretaker-leader of the People's party who runs the
government and is the second richest man in the country (from funds he
accrued when his late wife was prime minister) accused Musharraf of
corruption and siphoning US funds to private bank accounts.



Musharraf's departure will highlight the problems that confront the
country, which is in the grip of a food and power crisis that is
creating severe problems in every city. Inflation is out of control.
The price of gas (used for cooking in many homes) has risen by 30%.
Wheat, the staple diet of most people, has seen a 20% price hike since
November 2007 and while the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation
admits that the world's food stocks are at record lows there is an
additional problem in Pakistan.



Too much wheat is being smuggled into Afghanistan to serve the needs
of the Nato armies. The poor are the worst hit, but middle-class
families are also affected and according to a June 2008 survey, 86% of
Pakistanis find it increasingly difficult to afford flour on a daily
basis, for which they blame their own new government.



Other problems persist. The politicians remain divided on the
restoration of the judges sacked by Musharraf. The chief justice,
Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, is the most respected person in the
country. Zardari is reluctant to see him back at the head of the
supreme court. A possible compromise might be to offer him the
presidency. It would certainly unite the country for a short time. And
there is the army. Last month, the country's powerless prime minister,
Yousuf Gilani, went on a state visit to the US. On July 29 he was
questioned by Richard Haass, president of Council on Foreign
Relations:



Haass: Let me ask the question a different way, then – (laughter) –
beyond President Musharraf, which is whether you think now in the army
there is a broader acceptance of a more limited role for the army. Do
you think now the coming generation of army officers accepts the
notion that their proper role is in the barracks rather than in
politics?



Gilani: Certainly, yes. Because of the February 18 election of this
year, we have a mandate to the moderate forces, to the democratic
forces in Pakistan. And the moderate forces and the democratic forces,
they have formed the government. And therefore the people have voted
against dictatorship and for democracy, and therefore, in future even
the present of – the chief of the army staff is highly professional
and is fully supporting the democracy.



This is pure gibberish and convinces nobody. Over the last 50 years
the US has worked mainly with the Pakistan army. This has been its
preferred instrument. Nothing has changed. The question being asked
now is how long it will be before the military is back at the helm.



Tariq Ali's latest book, The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of
American Power will be published in September by Simon and Schuster