[Reader-list] "55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K polls" (Phase 1)

Tue Nov 18 20:29:17 IST 2008

Dear Sanjay Kak

It is sad that without first trying to get to know about and understand the systems, you try to raise doubts. 

If nothing else, you should be aware that Press (Media) reporting in the immediateness and 'heat of the situation' does not always present a logical picture. 

"End of the day" was my interpretation, presuming (as you pointed out) that a 7PM PTI bulletin would give the final figures. I was obviously in error.

EVMs are not networked but each machine is a 'stand alone' unit. So it is not a 'one button' operation that will give all the compilations for all the EVMs used.

Before the actual accounting (on 28th Dec for Phase1), and before firm numbers are known, I presume there are rough estimations reached. Whether this is on the basis of 'marked off' electoral rolls I do not know. 

What is more likely though is using of (as I understand) a "Total" button on each EVM (separate from the "Result" button which is sealed). Pressing the "Total" button gives the number of votes polled on that EVM.

It would seem reasonable to expect that with the level of available communication tools, 'final' counts of votes polled (and percentages calculated thereof) should not take too long after 'closing' of the polls. In practice though, I am sure, there would be some 'norms' being followed which would cause delays.

For the 87 Assembly Seats of J&K, there are 8,109 polling stations. 

The number of polling stations (documented) in the Assembly Seats involved in Phase1 were Bandipora-114, Sonawari-106 and Gurez -25, Mendhar-117, Poonch-142, Surankote-114, Kargil-158, Nobra-56, Leh-183, Zanskar-79 (Total 1094)

Even if there is only 1 EVM per polling station, 1094 is still a fair number of EVMs to bring to account not only for purposes of collation but also in view of the geographical spread.

I hope this now gives you some additional perspectives that will help you in your commenting.  

What might also be educative is:

1. Manual of Election Law, especially "The Conduct of Election Rules 1961" in VOLII
http://www.eci.gov.in/ElectoralLaws/HandBooks/MANUAL_OF_LAW_VOL_I.pdf
AND
http://www.eci.gov.in/ElectoralLaws/HandBooks/MANUAL_OF_LAW_VOL_II.pdf

2. FAQs for EVMs
http://www.eci.gov.in/faq/evm.asp

Kshmendra

--- On Tue, 11/18/08, Sanjay Kak <kaksanjay at gmail.com> wrote:

From: Sanjay Kak <kaksanjay at gmail.com>
Subject: [Reader-list] "55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K polls" (Phase 1)
To: "sarai list" <reader-list at sarai.net>
Date: Tuesday, November 18, 2008, 6:06 PM

Is there something a bit strange going on here?
The Voter Turnout for Round 1 of the Elections in Jammu & Kashmir
seems to have a curious elasticity. If you looked at the Indian papers
today, as I did, the Indian Express, The Hindu and the Times of India
all had different figures.

Since polling closes at 5pm, and is done via Electronic Voting
Machines, a 7pm news release by the Govt owned Press Trust of India
ought to be pretty much the last figure, right?

While one can understand the figure changing through the day, how is
it that the 55% quoted by PTI at the end of the day (fwded by K Kaul),
shoots up to 64% in another story (fwded by A R Kaul)?

And look at the PTI story (below):
both 55% and 64% in one story: the first one was "tentative" said the
Chief Electoral Officer!

A 9% variation is attributed to what: a loose cable in the EVMs?
Would love to hear from those who understand either EVMs, or
statistics, or politics, better than I do.

Best

Sanjay Kak

--------------------

*64 per cent turnout in J-K polls*

Srinagar (PTI): The first phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections
recorded a 64 per cent voter turnout, according to an official spokesman on
Monday night.

The spokesman said said Gurez constituency in the once terrorist-infested
Bandipora district recorded the highest voting-- 74 per cent-- followed by
Mendhar and Poonch (73), Surankote (68), Nobra (66) Leh, Kargil and Zanskar
(all 60), Bandipora(57) and Sonawari (46).

Earlier, Chief Electoral Officer B R Sharma told reporters in Srinagar that
around 55 per cent polling was registered in the 10 constituencies but the
figure was tentative and subject to revision once the final data comes in.
Sharma said Gurez constituency recorded 74 per cent vote followed by Mendhar
(65), Poonch (64), Surankote (58), Kargil (57), Nobra (55), Leh (53),
Zanskar(48) and Bandipora and Sonawari (42 each).

I mean

On Mon, Nov 17, 2008 at 9:05 PM, Kshmendra Kaul <kshmendra2005 at yahoo.com>
wrote:
>
> End of the day reported figures for the Sonawari Assembly Constituency are
42% as also 42% for Bandipora Assembly Constituency
>
> Doesnt sound very abysmal. Possibly now the allegations of
"rigging" will flow.
>
>
> Kshmendra
>
>
> "55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K polls" (PTI)
>
http://in.news.yahoo.com/20/20081117/1419/tnl-55-per-cent-turnout-in-first-phase-o.html
>
>
> Mon, Nov 17 07:04 PM
>
> Srinagar/Leh, Nov 17 (PTI) Braving freezing temperatures and ignoring
separatists' boycott call, Voters came out in large numbers in some towns
with an average 55 per cent turnout recorded in the first phase of the Assembly
elections in Jammu and Kashmir held amid unprecedented security. The turnout was
moderate to heavy and voting passed off peacefully except for stray incidents of
violence and protests amid threats of militants disrupting the polls which was
held in a curfew-like situation in 10 constituencies spread over four districts
of Bandipora, Poonch, Leh and Kargil.
>
> Polling in the border state has been staggered over seven phases lasting
up to December 24. Around 55 per cent polling was registered in the 10
constituencies, Chief electoral officer B R Sharma told reporters in Srinagar.
>
> Sharma said Gurez constituency in the once terrorist-infested Bandipora
district recorded the highest voting-- 74 per cent-- followed by Mendhar (65),
Poonch (64), Surankote (58), Kargil (57), Nobra (55), Leh (53), Zanskar (48) and
Bandipora and Sonawari (42 each). Srinagar, Bandipora and other towns were
almost totally locked down, as thousands of troops were out in force to prevent
anti-election rallies.
>
> An estimated six lakh voters were eligible to vote in the first phase. At
least seven persons including a woman were injured as police fired a few teargas
shells and used batons to disperse people protesting against holding of assembly
elections in Bandipora district, official sources said.
>
> The separatist co-ordination committee had given a call for 'Jehan
election waha challo' (march to where elections are). But the march to
Bandipora, 65 km north of Srinagar town, was foiled by security forces.
>
> PTI.
>
> /*YAHOO.EU.Messenger = new Messenger();
> var sStoryHeadline="55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K
polls"+'%0A';
> var
sStoryLink="http://in.news.yahoo.com/20/20081117/1419/tnl-55-per-cent-turnout-in-first-phase-o.html"+'%0A';
> var sDefaultMsg = "Check out this story on Yahoo!
News:"+'%0A';
> if (document.all) { sStoryHeadline = escape(sStoryHeadline); }
> */
>
>
>
>
> "Voting ends peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir" (IANS)
>
http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20081117/818/tnl-voting-ends-peacefully-in-jammu-and.html
>
> Mon, Nov 17 06:24 PM
>
> Srinagar/Jammu, Nov 17 (IANS) Voting ended peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir
for the first phase of the seven-phase elections Monday with a large number of
people exercising their franchise despite a call for boycott by Muslim
separatists.
>
> Polling started at 8 a.m. amid tight security in 10 constituencies spread
over the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley, the Hindu-majority Jammu region and
the mainly Buddhist Ladakh. The voting for the 87 constituencies is being held
in seven phases over a month.
> Barring a clash between a group of people protesting against the elections
in Bandipora town and the police and a scuffle between workers of National
Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the neighbouring Sonawari
constituency, balloting progressed smoothly, said a poll official.
>
> Polling had to be suspended in one polling station in Sonawari
constituency after a clash broke out between the workers of National Conference
and the Peoples Democratic Party over counter-allegations of booth capturing.
>
> Members of both the parties destroyed some electronic voting machines,
forcing the authorities to suspend polling. In a few constituencies in Poonch
region, polling time was extended by an hour.
>
> Barring Jammu region, the final poll percentage was awaited as poll
officials said they were compiling data from different constituencies.
>
> The final polling percentages in Jammu region were, Mendhar 67 percent,
Poonch Haveli 60 and Surankot 55.
>
> The figures for the four seats in Ladakh region as on 2 p.m. were Zanskar
45, Kargil 42, Nobra 36 and Leh 32.2 as on 2 p.m.
>
> At 2 p.m., Gurez in the Kashmir Valley had topped with 51 percent followed
by Bandipora 29 and Sonawari 28. This is significant given the boycott call of
the separatists and the fear of violence in the region.
>
> /*YAHOO.EU.Messenger = new Messenger();
> var sStoryHeadline="Voting ends peacefully in Jammu and
Kashmir"+'%0A';
> var
sStoryLink="http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20081117/818/tnl-voting-ends-peacefully-in-jammu-and.html"+'%0A';
> var sDefaultMsg = "Check out this story on Yahoo!
News:"+'%0A';
> if (document.all) { sStoryHeadline = escape(sStoryHeadline); }
> */
>
>
>
>
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