[Reader-list] "55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K polls" (Phase 1)

Tue Nov 18 18:06:51 IST 2008

Is there something a bit strange going on here?
The Voter Turnout for Round 1 of the Elections in Jammu & Kashmir
seems to have a curious elasticity. If you looked at the Indian papers
today, as I did, the Indian Express, The Hindu and the Times of India
all had different figures.

Since polling closes at 5pm, and is done via Electronic Voting
Machines, a 7pm news release by the Govt owned Press Trust of India
ought to be pretty much the last figure, right?

While one can understand the figure changing through the day, how is
it that the 55% quoted by PTI at the end of the day (fwded by K Kaul),
shoots up to 64% in another story (fwded by A R Kaul)?

And look at the PTI story (below):
both 55% and 64% in one story: the first one was "tentative" said the
Chief Electoral Officer!

A 9% variation is attributed to what: a loose cable in the EVMs?
Would love to hear from those who understand either EVMs, or
statistics, or politics, better than I do.

Best

Sanjay Kak

--------------------

*64 per cent turnout in J-K polls*

Srinagar (PTI): The first phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections
recorded a 64 per cent voter turnout, according to an official spokesman on
Monday night.

The spokesman said said Gurez constituency in the once terrorist-infested
Bandipora district recorded the highest voting-- 74 per cent-- followed by
Mendhar and Poonch (73), Surankote (68), Nobra (66) Leh, Kargil and Zanskar
(all 60), Bandipora(57) and Sonawari (46).

Earlier, Chief Electoral Officer B R Sharma told reporters in Srinagar that
around 55 per cent polling was registered in the 10 constituencies but the
figure was tentative and subject to revision once the final data comes in.
Sharma said Gurez constituency recorded 74 per cent vote followed by Mendhar
(65), Poonch (64), Surankote (58), Kargil (57), Nobra (55), Leh (53),
Zanskar(48) and Bandipora and Sonawari (42 each).

I mean

On Mon, Nov 17, 2008 at 9:05 PM, Kshmendra Kaul <kshmendra2005 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> End of the day reported figures for the Sonawari Assembly Constituency are 42% as also 42% for Bandipora Assembly Constituency
>
> Doesnt sound very abysmal. Possibly now the allegations of "rigging" will flow.
>
>
> Kshmendra
>
>
> "55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K polls" (PTI)
> http://in.news.yahoo.com/20/20081117/1419/tnl-55-per-cent-turnout-in-first-phase-o.html
>
>
> Mon, Nov 17 07:04 PM
>
> Srinagar/Leh, Nov 17 (PTI) Braving freezing temperatures and ignoring separatists' boycott call, Voters came out in large numbers in some towns with an average 55 per cent turnout recorded in the first phase of the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir held amid unprecedented security. The turnout was moderate to heavy and voting passed off peacefully except for stray incidents of violence and protests amid threats of militants disrupting the polls which was held in a curfew-like situation in 10 constituencies spread over four districts of Bandipora, Poonch, Leh and Kargil.
>
> Polling in the border state has been staggered over seven phases lasting up to December 24. Around 55 per cent polling was registered in the 10 constituencies, Chief electoral officer B R Sharma told reporters in Srinagar.
>
> Sharma said Gurez constituency in the once terrorist-infested Bandipora district recorded the highest voting-- 74 per cent-- followed by Mendhar (65), Poonch (64), Surankote (58), Kargil (57), Nobra (55), Leh (53), Zanskar (48) and Bandipora and Sonawari (42 each). Srinagar, Bandipora and other towns were almost totally locked down, as thousands of troops were out in force to prevent anti-election rallies.
>
> An estimated six lakh voters were eligible to vote in the first phase. At least seven persons including a woman were injured as police fired a few teargas shells and used batons to disperse people protesting against holding of assembly elections in Bandipora district, official sources said.
>
> The separatist co-ordination committee had given a call for 'Jehan election waha challo' (march to where elections are). But the march to Bandipora, 65 km north of Srinagar town, was foiled by security forces.
>
> PTI.
>
> /*YAHOO.EU.Messenger = new Messenger();
> var sStoryHeadline="55 per cent turnout in first phase of J-K polls"+'%0A';
> var sStoryLink="http://in.news.yahoo.com/20/20081117/1419/tnl-55-per-cent-turnout-in-first-phase-o.html"+'%0A';
> var sDefaultMsg = "Check out this story on Yahoo! News:"+'%0A';
> if (document.all) { sStoryHeadline = escape(sStoryHeadline); }
> */
>
>
>
>
> "Voting ends peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir" (IANS)
> http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20081117/818/tnl-voting-ends-peacefully-in-jammu-and.html
>
> Mon, Nov 17 06:24 PM
>
> Srinagar/Jammu, Nov 17 (IANS) Voting ended peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir for the first phase of the seven-phase elections Monday with a large number of people exercising their franchise despite a call for boycott by Muslim separatists.
>
> Polling started at 8 a.m. amid tight security in 10 constituencies spread over the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley, the Hindu-majority Jammu region and the mainly Buddhist Ladakh. The voting for the 87 constituencies is being held in seven phases over a month.
> Barring a clash between a group of people protesting against the elections in Bandipora town and the police and a scuffle between workers of National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the neighbouring Sonawari constituency, balloting progressed smoothly, said a poll official.
>
> Polling had to be suspended in one polling station in Sonawari constituency after a clash broke out between the workers of National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party over counter-allegations of booth capturing.
>
> Members of both the parties destroyed some electronic voting machines, forcing the authorities to suspend polling. In a few constituencies in Poonch region, polling time was extended by an hour.
>
> Barring Jammu region, the final poll percentage was awaited as poll officials said they were compiling data from different constituencies.
>
> The final polling percentages in Jammu region were, Mendhar 67 percent, Poonch Haveli 60 and Surankot 55.
>
> The figures for the four seats in Ladakh region as on 2 p.m. were Zanskar 45, Kargil 42, Nobra 36 and Leh 32.2 as on 2 p.m.
>
> At 2 p.m., Gurez in the Kashmir Valley had topped with 51 percent followed by Bandipora 29 and Sonawari 28. This is significant given the boycott call of the separatists and the fear of violence in the region.
>
> /*YAHOO.EU.Messenger = new Messenger();
> var sStoryHeadline="Voting ends peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir"+'%0A';
> var sStoryLink="http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20081117/818/tnl-voting-ends-peacefully-in-jammu-and.html"+'%0A';
> var sDefaultMsg = "Check out this story on Yahoo! News:"+'%0A';
> if (document.all) { sStoryHeadline = escape(sStoryHeadline); }
> */
>
>
>
>
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