[Reader-list] my view on cellular silent day on 30/01/09 by Ranjan Kamath

[Rakesh Iyer]

Dear Bipin (and all)

You have stated two points in the arguments you made about Modi. One was the
fact that Modi has now decided to use development as a tool to win
elections. The other is that the people of Gujarat have elected him on the
basis of development. The first has been answered by Taha, and for the
moment, I am not commenting on it. I would do so sometime later. My
reference is to the second point.

You have stated that solely development has been a factor for winning
elections in Gujarat for Modi and BJP. This has also been stated to be the
criterion for the victory of BJP in Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, as well
as that of the Congress in Delhi. However, my discussion with my friend
Aashish (a member of this list) has certainly opened my eyes, that it is a
highly wrong statement to be put up as a general one. And the reason is
this.

I think the media and the upper elites and the middle class, in this
country, have devised a simplistic way of analyzing elections, especially
when the verdicts are confounding for them, in order to prove that they knew
why the results came out the way they came out. However, in all this, they
forget many things. And those have to be pointed out in this mail.

Gujarat has 182 Assembly constituencies. Has Modi developed all the 182
assembly constituencies on an equal basis? Do all the constituencies, or at
least by and large most, have received the same kind of development in at
least 3-4 sectors, like agriculture, transport and communication like roads,
banking facilities of state etc.? I don't think that would be the case. And
mind you, such things can lead to complaints of discrimination to certain
regions and constituencies of Gujarat, against the Chief Minister and his
govt, and therefore his party.

Secondly. Compared to 2002, has the situation improved in all the sectors in
Gujarat? Or has it deteriorated? Which have improved, and which have not?
And did Modi try to help those sectors which didn't improve, and did people
feel that he tried to improve them?  More important is that, even if it did
improve, was the potential growth possible? Or did we miss out the potential
target? And if yes, by how much? And what do people feel about this?

Thirdly. There are many who think people vote on the basis of caste. Do all
the constituencies have same percentage of Dalits, Muslims, Patels, upper
castes and others? Or is it different? Is it the same for all BJP won
constituencies? Or even there, is there difference?

These are important questions.

The fact is, that instead of analyzing elections the macro-way, (which is
also the way you have analyzed development, and also have stated Gujarati
people to have analyzed development and BJP), one should look at the
constituency level, to decide why has the BJP candidate has won, or why has
the Congress candidate won, and so on.

There can be many reasons, and perceptions. It may be that all Muslims voted
for Congress candidate and therefore he won. Or, all Patels voted combinedly
in favor of BJP candidate and so he won. Or, some Patels didn't vote for BJP
candidate, as they were angry that Modi had disposed of Keshubhai Patel from
the BJP, and they felt a Patel leader was marginalized. Or, Modi was
perceived to be a strong CM. Or, Kolis felt that Modi had failed to protect
their women (there was a rape case of a woman belonging to Koli community in
Saurashtra a couple of months before the assembly elections) and hence voted
against it. And so on.

I am not saying that what you said is wrong. It could be right. But there is
no substantial statistical analysis to decide that which reason was right or
which was not right. Therefore, it is very difficult to assume that Modi won
on the basis of development. Or on Hindutva. Or on Moditva, as he would like
us to believe in some sense. It may be other reasons as well. It may be that
the candidates he had chosen had good following in their constituencies. Or
it may be that BSP had spoiled the chances of Congress candidates. But there
should be statistical analysis for this.

The reason I say this is that, it is more starkly true in my own state
(Madhya Pradesh). Now, the Congress was doing well in the bye-elections till
about one and a half years back. And many believed that the BJP there would
lose its govt. Instead it won. And it has won by 37.50% votes being secured
by it, which is the lowest number of votes secured by any party in the
history of the MP assembly elections to form a government. Now what happened
in these one and a half years to ensure it won. God knows. Everybody is
giving some reasons, but I don't think anybody has anything except possible
perceptions, which may or may not be true, but which dont' have facts to
back them up.

One more thing. It's wrong for all of us, including me, to say that Gujarat
voted for Modi. Modi was voted in by majority of the voters who turned up on
the day of election, not by all Gujarati voters who turned up, nor by all
Gujaratis who are eligible voters. Instead, we can simply say Modi won
Gujarat elections. That would be better.

Regards

Rakesh

PS :Thanks to Aashish for this wonderful discussion to lead to this kind of
insight.