[Reader-list] Election Forecast

[Pawan Durani]

Great show by Congress .....

However the best thing about this election was the worst performance of Left
in last 40 years.

Advani Ji now needs a peaceful retirement and perhaps may be rewarded with
Gratuity and other benefits.....

Pawan



On Sun, May 17, 2009 at 12:11 AM, Rakesh Iyer <rakesh.rnbdj at gmail.com>wrote:

> Dear all
>
> I had gone out, so apologies (if required) for the delay.
>
> Unlike Anupam jee, I don't have problems with people changing their views
> provided they stick to it. So I won't comment on that.
>
> What I will comment on are some interesting thoughts. First of all, India
> has a parliamentary system where people choose their representatives on the
> first by post principle, and there are a number of factors at play. What is
> certainly not a factor (neither in 2004 nor in 2009 as CSDS surveys done by
> Yogendra Yadav repeatedly indicate) is the issue of the Prime Minister.
>
> Forget Advani or Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi. Even if
> Lord Krishna, Lord Ram, Prophet Muhammad or Jesus Christ were to stand for
> the post of Prime Minister, it would hardly make an effect, simply because
> people don't vote for personalities as PM. The major issues before people
> are concerned with their livelihood, be it 'roti, kapda and makan', water,
> health (this means a good hospital with working people and working
> equipments in the village or nearby places), good connection to cities
> through roads, education, and in this particular issue, two more issues
> were
> important: inflation and security.
>
> So actually, the BJP did have issues to fight with: inflation and
> terrorism.
> Except that BJP doesn't have a great record in them either.
>
> As far as inflation is concerned, I can only remind of the 1998 elections
> in
> Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where BJP suffered a 440-KV shock on
> losing state elections. And as for terrorism, we all know how they fared.
> The Kandahar fiasco, the Parliament attack, the Godhra incident (I mention
> this here because the Gujarat BJP unit repeatedly mentioned this as an
> ISI-sponsored attack, so they can clarify on this. I mention it as an
> intelligence failure), the Akshardham temple attack, the Raghunath temple
> attack, the bomb blasts in Mulund and Ghatkopar, and so on. So before
> throwing stones at others, the BJP should look at its' own shallow record
> with respect to terror in the past.
>
> And on top of all this, then they have the foolishness in them to say that
> L.K. Advani is a strong leader. And to indicate this, they had posters
> showing Advani clenching his fists! Great! That way we could have put one
> of
> the wrestlers who had won a bronze medal for us in Olympics 2008 as the PM
> candidate! Nobody could have been stronger than that!
>
> Strength doesn't come by repeatedly saying that 'I am strong'. A person who
> is strong will never say that about himself; it's others who say that about
> him. Here we had Advani shooting off his own mouth about how strong he was.
> And people knew how to respond.
>
> Secondly, contrary to your statements Vedavati jee, the BJP hasn't done
> that
> well as expected. In MP, it was expected to win more than 20 seats. And
> Congress was not certainly expecting 10 seats which it won there. As for
> Rajasthan, BJP has been wiped out when compared to last election. Only
> Chhatisgarh and Gujarat are the states where BJP has done better than
> previous times, in addition to Jharkhand of course.
>
> Thirdly, you are right. BJP should have expanded their base. But base could
> have been expanded by throwing away Hindutva (which ironically brings to
> them supporters like you but alienates many), and trying to become a
> right-centrist party. People would have had no problems if BJP had no trust
> on Pakistan, wanted India to become a super-power, and had stated that they
> weren't embarassed on their Hindu roots.
>
> Instead, the BJP just seems hell bent on attacking minorities where and
> when
> they can (Kandhamal and Karnataka being best examples) and then wants
> Muslims and Christians to vote for them! How do they expect a Muslim woman
> to vote for them when under their reign, she was raped in the name of 'Jai
> Shree Ram' by activists related to the larger parivar to which the BJP
> belongs?
>
> Similarly on the issue of appeasement. It is right that the Congress and
> others have practiced Muslim appeasement. But does this mean Muslims should
> be punished? When Muslims haven't progressed, then it's the fault of the
> Congress. How are they being then 'pampered'? Vote bank politics is
> actually
> to disadvantage of Muslims, and the BJP should have come to their rescue by
> providing them development. Instead, the BJP gave them post-Godhra as gift.
>
> Fourth. Can Bipin jee inform me (or anybody else for that matter) as to the
> proceedings under NDA which point to RTI? I would be glad to know.
>
> Fifth. Swathi jee, I think you raised two vital points. I agree with you
> that it's not the Congress or the Left (do read this Bipin jee, this is for
> you too) which brought either the NREGA or the RTI, it's the social
> movements which brought them. And I appreciate the courage they showed in
> their movement and the pressure they exerted, which was accepted by the
> Left
> at very late stage, and finally this act was introduced. One must never
> forget the kind of pressure exerted by the Times of India-Economic
> Times-Ambani-English mainstream media-their elitist friends combine, to
> ensure the NREGA never got passed.
>
> But the larger point also remains that this govt did pass it. Would the NDA
> have ever passed it? You know better than me what the answer to that would
> be. Therefore, we must accept their small contribution to getting this act
> passed and appreciate it, though the first credit to it lies with all those
> who fought tooth and nail in the first place to get the act passed.
>
> And Bipin jee, the NREGA was brought through a social movement. Better go
> and find about it rather than cribbing about policies you don't know a
> thing
> about. And as for your infrastructural development, the people of India
> would want NREGA first rather than the Golden Quadrilateral.
>
>
> The second point Swathi jee has raised is about an elected PM. Personally,
> I
> would have liked Manmohan Singh jee to fight the election and win it. That
> would have silenced many people who always look upon him as the 'stooge of
> Sonia'. However, unlike others, I wouldn't feel so bad about it. The larger
> issue is always the livelihood of people, and while Sonia may not have the
> responsibilities of the PM, she has the responsibilities of ensuring her
> party wins elections. Therefore, even if the PM doesn't listen, she has to
> listen to the voice of India, as she had to in the case of NREGA and RTI.
>
> Therefore, I don't worry much whether Manmohan is elected or not. I though
> have another reason as to why a PM should be elected.
>
> When a PM like say Vajpayee gets elected and then becomes PM, he knows the
> ways and means to win elections. And therefore he equally knows when to
> start something, where to stop (why, where and when), where to set agendas
> and where to start working upon them. Manmohan I don't think has that
> political experience an elected PM have to manage his allies. This is clear
> from the way he reacted at different times to the nuclear deal. His
> reactions wouldn't have changed so much had he been an elected PM. Perhaps
> he could have handled the Left better in that case.
>
> But again this is only my speculation. It may be true, or it may be false.
>
> And democracy is not about elections. It is about giving rights to citizens
> and ensure that they are indeed actually provided those rights. So an
> elected PM or not is not a big issue.
>
> What is are the rights of people to secure their livelihood.
>
> If the BJP gains this huge lesson from this election, I would be the most
> happy person on this planet. And my frustration at this not happening is
> what made me write in a nasty way, for which I am sorry. I would not repeat
> that again.
>
> And if the BJP doesn't learn it, then we need another party to come at
> centre to fight against Congress and displace BJP from its pole.
>
> And finally, the last word from one of my friends who also happens to be a
> member of this list:
>
> The BJP lost because the revenues obtained through growth are spent only to
> further growth. The Congress won because it spent partially the revenues
> obtained through growth to bring up the poor to above-subsistence level and
> contributed in some measure to equitable development in this manner.
>
>
> Regards
>
> Rakesh
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