[Reader-list] Election Forecast

[Rakesh Iyer]

Dear all

I had gone out, so apologies (if required) for the delay.

Unlike Anupam jee, I don't have problems with people changing their views
provided they stick to it. So I won't comment on that.

What I will comment on are some interesting thoughts. First of all, India
has a parliamentary system where people choose their representatives on the
first by post principle, and there are a number of factors at play. What is
certainly not a factor (neither in 2004 nor in 2009 as CSDS surveys done by
Yogendra Yadav repeatedly indicate) is the issue of the Prime Minister.

Forget Advani or Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi. Even if
Lord Krishna, Lord Ram, Prophet Muhammad or Jesus Christ were to stand for
the post of Prime Minister, it would hardly make an effect, simply because
people don't vote for personalities as PM. The major issues before people
are concerned with their livelihood, be it 'roti, kapda and makan', water,
health (this means a good hospital with working people and working
equipments in the village or nearby places), good connection to cities
through roads, education, and in this particular issue, two more issues were
important: inflation and security.

So actually, the BJP did have issues to fight with: inflation and terrorism.
Except that BJP doesn't have a great record in them either.

As far as inflation is concerned, I can only remind of the 1998 elections in
Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where BJP suffered a 440-KV shock on
losing state elections. And as for terrorism, we all know how they fared.
The Kandahar fiasco, the Parliament attack, the Godhra incident (I mention
this here because the Gujarat BJP unit repeatedly mentioned this as an
ISI-sponsored attack, so they can clarify on this. I mention it as an
intelligence failure), the Akshardham temple attack, the Raghunath temple
attack, the bomb blasts in Mulund and Ghatkopar, and so on. So before
throwing stones at others, the BJP should look at its' own shallow record
with respect to terror in the past.

And on top of all this, then they have the foolishness in them to say that
L.K. Advani is a strong leader. And to indicate this, they had posters
showing Advani clenching his fists! Great! That way we could have put one of
the wrestlers who had won a bronze medal for us in Olympics 2008 as the PM
candidate! Nobody could have been stronger than that!

Strength doesn't come by repeatedly saying that 'I am strong'. A person who
is strong will never say that about himself; it's others who say that about
him. Here we had Advani shooting off his own mouth about how strong he was.
And people knew how to respond.

Secondly, contrary to your statements Vedavati jee, the BJP hasn't done that
well as expected. In MP, it was expected to win more than 20 seats. And
Congress was not certainly expecting 10 seats which it won there. As for
Rajasthan, BJP has been wiped out when compared to last election. Only
Chhatisgarh and Gujarat are the states where BJP has done better than
previous times, in addition to Jharkhand of course.

Thirdly, you are right. BJP should have expanded their base. But base could
have been expanded by throwing away Hindutva (which ironically brings to
them supporters like you but alienates many), and trying to become a
right-centrist party. People would have had no problems if BJP had no trust
on Pakistan, wanted India to become a super-power, and had stated that they
weren't embarassed on their Hindu roots.

Instead, the BJP just seems hell bent on attacking minorities where and when
they can (Kandhamal and Karnataka being best examples) and then wants
Muslims and Christians to vote for them! How do they expect a Muslim woman
to vote for them when under their reign, she was raped in the name of 'Jai
Shree Ram' by activists related to the larger parivar to which the BJP
belongs?

Similarly on the issue of appeasement. It is right that the Congress and
others have practiced Muslim appeasement. But does this mean Muslims should
be punished? When Muslims haven't progressed, then it's the fault of the
Congress. How are they being then 'pampered'? Vote bank politics is actually
to disadvantage of Muslims, and the BJP should have come to their rescue by
providing them development. Instead, the BJP gave them post-Godhra as gift.

Fourth. Can Bipin jee inform me (or anybody else for that matter) as to the
proceedings under NDA which point to RTI? I would be glad to know.

Fifth. Swathi jee, I think you raised two vital points. I agree with you
that it's not the Congress or the Left (do read this Bipin jee, this is for
you too) which brought either the NREGA or the RTI, it's the social
movements which brought them. And I appreciate the courage they showed in
their movement and the pressure they exerted, which was accepted by the Left
at very late stage, and finally this act was introduced. One must never
forget the kind of pressure exerted by the Times of India-Economic
Times-Ambani-English mainstream media-their elitist friends combine, to
ensure the NREGA never got passed.

But the larger point also remains that this govt did pass it. Would the NDA
have ever passed it? You know better than me what the answer to that would
be. Therefore, we must accept their small contribution to getting this act
passed and appreciate it, though the first credit to it lies with all those
who fought tooth and nail in the first place to get the act passed.

And Bipin jee, the NREGA was brought through a social movement. Better go
and find about it rather than cribbing about policies you don't know a thing
about. And as for your infrastructural development, the people of India
would want NREGA first rather than the Golden Quadrilateral.


The second point Swathi jee has raised is about an elected PM. Personally, I
would have liked Manmohan Singh jee to fight the election and win it. That
would have silenced many people who always look upon him as the 'stooge of
Sonia'. However, unlike others, I wouldn't feel so bad about it. The larger
issue is always the livelihood of people, and while Sonia may not have the
responsibilities of the PM, she has the responsibilities of ensuring her
party wins elections. Therefore, even if the PM doesn't listen, she has to
listen to the voice of India, as she had to in the case of NREGA and RTI.

Therefore, I don't worry much whether Manmohan is elected or not. I though
have another reason as to why a PM should be elected.

When a PM like say Vajpayee gets elected and then becomes PM, he knows the
ways and means to win elections. And therefore he equally knows when to
start something, where to stop (why, where and when), where to set agendas
and where to start working upon them. Manmohan I don't think has that
political experience an elected PM have to manage his allies. This is clear
from the way he reacted at different times to the nuclear deal. His
reactions wouldn't have changed so much had he been an elected PM. Perhaps
he could have handled the Left better in that case.

But again this is only my speculation. It may be true, or it may be false.

And democracy is not about elections. It is about giving rights to citizens
and ensure that they are indeed actually provided those rights. So an
elected PM or not is not a big issue.

What is are the rights of people to secure their livelihood.

If the BJP gains this huge lesson from this election, I would be the most
happy person on this planet. And my frustration at this not happening is
what made me write in a nasty way, for which I am sorry. I would not repeat
that again.

And if the BJP doesn't learn it, then we need another party to come at
centre to fight against Congress and displace BJP from its pole.

And finally, the last word from one of my friends who also happens to be a
member of this list:

The BJP lost because the revenues obtained through growth are spent only to
further growth. The Congress won because it spent partially the revenues
obtained through growth to bring up the poor to above-subsistence level and
contributed in some measure to equitable development in this manner.


Regards

Rakesh