[Reader-list] Election Forecast

[Rakesh Iyer]

Dear all

Yesterday I had a chat with Anupam jee, and what I understood was that I had
contradicted myself somewhere in that mail.

On one hand I had stated that Gujarat keeps electing Modi for those reasons
which are hated outside. On the other I had said that a section of Gujarati
society believes in those views. Both are somewhat contradictory statements.
Therefore, let me correct that contradiction here.

There is a section of Gujarati society which likes the way Modi behaves (his
arrogance, his antics, his rabble rousing speeches which are often
vitriolic, his cliche-based statements, and his attack on personal
opponents). And this section also votes for him or his party based on such
things. They also believe that Hindus are weak and effete as of now, and
they should be strong (or masculine in nature). So therefore Modi is
supported by this section.

At the same time, he can't be just elected by these people alone, simply
because there is no proof of the same. Any party coming back to power has
numerous factors attached to it. These can include the nature of the
candidate of a constituency, development works undertaken by the incumbent
MLA or incumbent govt., the Hindutva issue (so also the issue I tracked),
and many others. Therefore, I can't and shouldn't be making a general
statement that Gujarat elects Modi only and only on this issue.

However, the fact that this section supports him, and Modi behaves as per
their liking is very unfortunate. In contrast to how Rahul Gandhi behaved
(when he commended Advani for fighting a strong election) and how Advani
himself behaved (by at least accepting defeat gracefully and congratulating
the victors), here we have a CM who is vitriolic at best, and when his party
has been defeated, he is nowhere to be found in the media news. (Earlier he
was in the limelight)

The second point is that when I say Gujarat elects Modi, it seems as if 100%
people of Gujarat vote for Modi (a friend pointed out this to me) which is
not the case. In 2002, about slightly more than 50% of those who voted,
voted for BJP. They didn't necessarily vote for Modi again. Therefore, I am
sorry to put forth conclusions like these. In 2007, less than 50% of those
who voted, voted for BJP.

The last point is that not only Gujarati, but other societies also have such
characters. Even across the world they are there. However, in Gujarat, they
have now taken part of the dominant discourse in the mainstream media and
they are the dominant voice being heard, which is not necessarily the case
in other states. Therefore, when the focus first goes on searching such
voices, it is to Gujarat that I turn.

However the issue still stands. Can this section of society realize that the
values they admire are actuallly detrimental to the growth of any society
and even abhorred in America (the only superpower of the world as of now)?
Can this section of society realize that strength comes not from speeches
and fist showing but by reactions to tough situations (Strangely when faced
with defeat, Modi bhai is hiding from the media)? Can this section of
society realize that Indian culture means that one is gracious to the
defeated as well? And can this section of society realize that Muslims are
not traitors but are as much Indians as Hindus are?

There lies the answer for us to become a developed society.

Regards

Rakesh