[Reader-list] Election Forecast

[Pawan Durani]

In this Elections , BJP did not loose much . They almost retained the
previous share. Congress gain was due to loss of the left , Samajwadi's ,
Lalu & Paswan.

This election turned out to be an election of 'Secular' Congress Vs Hindu
'Communal" BJP & Muslim 'Communal ' left.

I was also wondering if the majority gained by Congress is good foe country
as the opposition is in no way to put pressure on ruling majority.

Is a more stable Govt good for development or bad for democracy ?

Pawan


On Mon, May 18, 2009 at 7:50 PM, Rakesh Iyer <rakesh.rnbdj at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dear Shuddha and Anupam
>
> You have raised certain important issues in your mail, and one has to look
> at both of them.
>
> *Anupam jee*
>
> You stated that my projection or identification with Gujarat in the sense I
> portrayed in my previous mails is wrong. I can accept that, but then as I
> said, the dominant discourse in Gujarat (run by the mainstream local
> Gujarati media in collusion with Modi, coupled with support of a certain
> section of society there) has created that image which has portrayed
> Gujarat
> in that light. And it's time Gujarat moves away from that image.
>
> It becomes even more ironic for me when I compare Modi with the CM of my
> own
> state, Shivraj Singh Chauhan. When one listens to their election speeches,
> one sees a world of difference. I can accept their styles of speeches (I
> liked Modi commenting that Congress must be congratulated for creating
> slums
> which led to Slumdog Millionaire winning the Oscars), what I can't
> understand is the attack of opponents by Modi (particularly Sonia and Rahul
> Gandhi as well as Manmohan too in this election). When I see that, I begin
> to remember the state in which I am living right now, Tamil Nadu. Here too,
> we have the 'Kalaignar' and the 'Amma' having zero respect for each other
> and fighting elections as if they were in a wrestling match.
>
> I have heard Shivraj speak, and what seemed so good about it was the way he
> first asked for apologies from people if his govt. had done anything wrong
> in the previous 5 years. I wonder if Modi would have the courage to ask
> apologies from Gujarati people like that. I still remember the haughty
> nature of the BJP when they won Gujarat in 2002. What is there to be
> haughty
> about? Do election victories make our rulers so haughty? Is it necessary?
>
> At the same time, it's a failure of the Congress in Gujarat to forget the
> issues to focus upon (those which you have stated like the pollution in
> Ankleshwar and high crime rates against women in cities). Instead of
> focussing to become a B-team of Hindutva (which they have become under
> Vaghela), they would do better to focus on these issues and imaginatively
> use them to send the BJP packing, or at least argue constructively on
> issues
> related to people.
>
> *Shuddha jee*
>
> You have put important issues into focus. The problem with the Left is that
> they only focus on equity. This when translated in economic paradigm, means
> that there is more focus on distribution of resources rather than
> generating
> resources in the first place. The result is that in West Bengal itself, the
> focus was on distribution of land (and increase in agricultural production
> was attributed to it in the 80's), but then the agricultural production
> couldn't increase beyond a point simply because either the reforms were
> partial, or because for economically beneficial agriculture to be taken up,
> the size of the land can't go down beyond a point critically.
>
> So the Left was actually asking all the people to remain poor, instead of a
> particular section remaining poor.
>
>  The BJP on the other hand, being a rightist party, believes that the focus
> should mainly be on resource generation rather than distribution of
> resources. For them, the revenues earned through resource generation or
> usage of resources should be spent on things which only increase further
> revenues. So, revenues should be spent on giving loans to rich farmers at
> 7%
> (only farmers who have a guarantee can get loans after all), or for Golden
> Quadrilateral scheme and so on. The result is that the poor are left out of
> the entire machinery, while for the rich, nothing can be better off than
> this, so India shines for the rich and not for the poor.
>
> The Congress to a certain extent has realized that one has to focus on
> both,
> growth and distribution of resources and revenue. This can be realized
> through on one hand, introducing and continuing with schemes which can
> increase the growth (like giving loans to farmers and Golden Quadrilateral
> scheme), and also introduce measures to distribute the revenue obtained
> through such growth (as both cash and kind/goods, like the NREGA and the
> BPL
> schemes). Infact, even in exit polls, people have been telling journalists
> that NREGA was an important reason why the poor voted for the Congress(like
> the NDTV has accepted, so also sources related to Congress).
>
> And this ultimately should be the criterion. Therefore, instead of
> supporting the BJP or the Left policies, we have to look at the 'middle of
> the road' policies. And we should take the Left's stand wherever the
> distribution of resources can take place among the poor and they can be
> benefited. And we should support the Right's stand wherever growth can take
> place by and large without affecting the people (especially the poor and
> the
> downtrodden).
>
> This is where we should go different from the Gandhian perspective of the
> economy. Because Gandhi believed that a person can be rich only by taking
> away the resources of the poor. In other words the Reliance (and other
> rich)
> is responsible for India's poverty! But that is not true. Hence, I am not
> asking that the Reliance must be hated, as the Left wants me to. Neither
> should I love Reliance, as the Right wants me to.
>
> What I want is that Reliance pays taxes, and this can be used through
> schemes like NREGA, backed by RTI to look at transparency of schemes, so
> that the poor get the money through employment and their purchasing power
> increases and their lives become better. I have no objections with Reliance
> wanting to build more plants, and increasing their revenue, as it helps me
> to get more taxes and more revenue as well.
>
> Really, the Left needs to think on these lines and redefine themselves.
> Their idea of encouraging industry in Bengal is not wrong , but they should
> realize that policy making is one thing, and implementing it on ground is
> another. They can't afford another Singur or Nandigram fiasco again. Of
> course, they have to change themselves in more ways as you stated, for
> which
> I would write something later.
>
> Regards
>
> Rakesh
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