[Reader-list] Election Forecast

[Rakesh Iyer]

Dear Pawan (and all)

There have been many comments on the factors which have led to the victory
of the UPA. I don't know if I have passed one blanket verdict on this issue
or not (if I have I am sorry), but we can't say that this is a victory of
secularism against communalism. (Precisely because this would mean that
victory of the BJP is a victory of communalism, which is like insulting the
people of a state where BJP gained power).

1) The most important issue is that any general election today, is a
combination of state elections. Each state saw different factors playing a
role, and in their sum this was the verdict obtained. There can be certain
common factors (for example, I personally feel NREGA has helped the UPA,
particularly the Congress a lot. However this could be not true). But again,
each state or province of India is in a league of its own and the factors
which contribute to victory for one party in one state may lead to defeat of
it in some other state. (For example, the rise of Modi in Gujarat can
contribute to the decline of BJP in UP and Bihar).

2) When we talk of the need for a stable govt, many people have the economy
in mind. It's the corporates who are seen to want a stable govt which can
bring reforms for them so that their interests are the most paramount and
they can get what they want. The problem with this is that it's not just the
corporates but the other people in India who also elect a govt, and so they
also have a right to decide on these policies. Corporates would like to have
their own way, and with the media in their hands, they like to pressurize
the politicians in power to do as they like.

Actually speaking, we do require a stable govt, but it is due to the 5
reasons Mr. Ramchandra Guha pointed out in one of his articles I remember
reading during the course of the election campaigning. These are health,
education, economy, foreign policy and environment policies to be
formulated. To this I would add a 6th, agriculture. Any stable govt can
decide upon the paradigms to be followed and concentrate on forming policies
and ensuring their implementation, without being concerned about their own
stability or their own chairs. Economy does also not mean the corporates,
but more than that.

Hence, a stable govt. is in India's interests. However, we have seen in the
past that stable govts. have turned arrogant or have shot themselves in the
foot, particularly the Rajiv Gandhi and the Indira Gandhi govt. Hence, one
must realize that one has the commitment to the people of India when at
Centre, and undertake their rule with the above 6 sectors in particular in
mind.

The previous govt. actually did little on most of these sectors. For
example, on the health and education sector, most of the energy was spent in
fighting on OBC reservation and allocating more money. Of course, the NCERT
devised its own syllabus, but the govt could have done work on issues like
teacher training at both school and college level. Similarly, the govt.
could have introduced the move to have more IIT's and more IIM's in the
first year itself, for that would have helped a great deal.

In economy, the govt. could have shifted from at least certain sectors like
making beedis or being in hotel business. These are not areas where govt.
has to be involved at all. The govt should have also tried to bring about
reforms and disinvestment upto a certain extent in certain sectors where
industrial competition must be promoted (like steel and aluminum plants).

3) Thirdly, the Congress has gained hugely across states. What's more, they
have done reasonably well in the Hindi heartland, with the 'revival' in UP
and good performance in Rajasthan. Even in MP, they have done better than
expected. There are basically some states where they have not done well in
their own admission:

a)  Gujarat (where the result was almost same as last time, so that is not
too bad)
b)  Orissa (here Congress is lucky to get 7/21 seats in Lok Sabha and only
getting 26/147 seats in Assembly elections)
c) Chhatisgarh (only 1/11 seats in Lok Sabha)
d) Karnataka
e) Bihar (where they have to build an organization)

These are also states where BJP also has a role to play (except may be
Orissa). What will be interesting to look at is how the govt. actually tries
to balance the mainstream media and the struggles of the poor and the
downtrodden to bring about development on an equitable basis. This is the
ultimate challenge for the people.

Regards

Rakesh